217 Alpine Ridge Ln · Meadows of Dan, VA 24120

$449,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily · 280 Days on market

Built 1999 8.80 ac lot $241/sqft · 35% below area Est $695k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Meadows of Dan in the beautiful Blue Ridge Mountains is this well cared for four-bedroom three bath brick ranch with ~ 8.8 acres and panoramic views that will speak to your heart. Just off the Blue Ridge Parkway, a mile from Chateau Morisette Winery and minutes from Meadows of Dan and Historic Mabry Mill you’ll feel transported to a tranquil enchanted world filled with deer, rabbits, turkeys, birds and maybe a bear?! And of course, at night: The stars! The open floor plan is the center of the home and perfect for entertaining family and friends. Full home generator with automatic power-off trigger ensures power and water will be available despite the weather.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Full home generator
• Panoramic views

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• FULL HOME GENERATOR
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (48.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (55.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (55.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 1.1% in Meadows of Dan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $449k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $201,088 (55.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.45%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $695,100
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -35.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $45,945
• Equity at exit: $295,800

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $207,724
• Equity at exit: $548,513

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24120

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 18.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$561 /mo · $6,735/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-1,514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,928

Max offer price $229,872

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,204	-5% $-1,359	+0% $-1,514	+5% $-1,669	+10% $-1,825
Rent	-10% $-1,673	-5% $-1,594	+0% $-1,514	+5% $-1,435	+10% $-1,355
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,288	-0.5pp $-1,400	base $-1,514	+0.5pp $-1,631	+1.0pp $-1,749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $449,000 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 276 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,000 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $449,000 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $449,000 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $449,000 Active 260 DOM
17. 2025-11-24
    price $449,000 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Located in Meadows of Dan in the beautiful Blue Ridge Mountains is this well cared for four-bedroom three bath brick ranch with ~ 8.8 acres and panoramic views that will speak to your heart. Just off the Blue Ridge Parkway, a mile from Chateau Morisette Winery and minutes from Meadows of Dan and Historic Mabry Mill you’ll feel transported to a tranquil enchanted world filled with deer, rabbits, turkeys, birds and maybe a bear?! And of course, at night: The stars! The open floor plan is the center of the home and perfect for entertaining family and friends. Full home generator with automatic power-off trigger ensures power and water will be available despite the weather.

18. 2025-09-12
    listed $465,000 Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Located in Meadows of Dan in the beautiful Blue Ridge Mountains is this well cared for four-bedroom three bath brick ranch with ~ 8.8 acres and panoramic views that will speak to your heart. Just off the Blue Ridge Parkway, a mile from Chateau Morisette Winery and minutes from Meadows of Dan and Historic Mabry Mill you’ll feel transported to a tranquil enchanted world filled with deer, rabbits, turkeys, birds and maybe a bear?! And of course, at night: The stars! The open floor plan is the center of the home and perfect for entertaining family and friends. Full home generator with automatic power-off trigger ensures power and water will be available despite the weather.

19. 2000-12-29
    soldstatus $220,000 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    LOCATED JUST OFF PARKWAY ACROSS FROM CHATEAU MORRISETTE WINERY MOVE IN CONDITION WITH ALL FURNITURE GREAT VIEWS OFF REAR DECK AND MASTER BEDROOM

20. 2000-10-05
    listed $250,000 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    LOCATED JUST OFF PARKWAY ACROSS FROM CHATEAU MORRISETTE WINERY MOVE IN CONDITION WITH ALL FURNITURE GREAT VIEWS OFF REAR DECK AND MASTER BEDROOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 4 d/yr ≥90°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$6,735
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$26,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,462
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patrick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102880
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,331
• Composite: 60.52/100
• National rank: #842
• State rank: #18 of 131 in VA

Livability — Meadows of Dan

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,608

Population outlook (Patrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,918 people
• By 2030: 16,097 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,317 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 12,476 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 9,051 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 6,138 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Patrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -30.6pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+30.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.47%
• Current HPI: 172.7689
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+79.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $449,000 NRVMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $465,000 NRVMLS
• 2000-12-29 Sold (MLS) $220,000 MLSRV
• 2000-10-05 Listed $250,000 MLSRV