205 E 1st St · Carnegie, OK 73015

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1930 Est $145k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Roof was replaced November of 2022. Plumbing redone in 2022. New fence last year. Central heat and air was put in , in the last couple of years. Front yard has sprinkler system.

Key facts

• Plumbing redone
• Central heat and air
• Roof replaced

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED
• PLUMBING REDONE
• NEW FENCE
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• FRONT YARD SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($303/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#246 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carnegie (rural): math 15% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #212 of 270 in OK (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,547 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,504
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 S Bruce St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-1%)	7mo	$145,000	$82	78
503 S Carnegie St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+4%)	1mo	$149,900	$81	77
206 E 3rd St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,724 (-3%)	8mo	$30,000	$17	76
104 E 2nd St	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,756 (-2%)	22mo	$125,000	$71	63
211 W Birch St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+7%)	4mo	$142,000	$75	60
414 S Carol St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (+9%)	6mo	$167,000	$86	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-18,629
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-14,080
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73015

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $68	+0% $25	+5% $-18	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $-19	+0% $25	+5% $70	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $57	base $25	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 179-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$430
• After-tax cash flow: $734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carnegie
• NCES district ID: 4006630
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $32,189
• Composite: 13.71/100
• National rank: #9497
• State rank: #212 of 270 in OK

Livability — Carnegie

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #16515

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carnegie, OK
• Population (ZIP): 2,365

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,391 people
• By 2030: 27,844 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 27,057 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 26,484 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 26,266 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 26,077 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Native American 20% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 1% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.4% · R 72.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -30.7pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+30.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.28%
• Current HPI: 159.676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $108 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.