Champion 95 Duck River Estates Plan · Columbia, TN 38401

$169,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 190 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.1

Listing remarks

This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is perfectly located near the serene Duck River. The spacious kitchen with a large island is ideal for cooking and entertaining. Enjoy the luxurious primary suite with a beautiful en-suite bathroom featuring a tile shower, garden tub, and double sink vanity. Step outside to the deck facing the Duck River with a fenced in back yard for a peaceful spot to unwind and enjoy nature Book your tour today! We look forward to helping you find your dream home.

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• Primary suite
• Storage shed

Tags

• STORAGE SHED
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $169,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-904 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #786 of 952 statewide, top 84%, 429 students, 0% FRL); E. A. Cox Middle School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #284 of 333 statewide, top 86%, 656 students, 0% FRL); Columbia Central High School (math 7% / reading 27%, grade F, #225 of 332 statewide, top 69%, 1,474 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1509 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.13%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,900
• List price: $169,500
• Delta: -43.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1836 Goldsberry St	1.27mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+4%)	1mo	$259,900	$160	56
1801 Goldsberry St	1.27mi	3/2.5	1,511 (-4%)	4mo	$278,000	$184	54
1335 Danbury Dr #62	1.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (+4%)	6mo	$337,500	$207	49
614 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	3mo	$385,000	$221	44
1302 Crofton Park Ct	1.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+9%)	2mo	$346,000	$202	43
569 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.32mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	8mo	$389,990	$224	40
408 Shawnee Dr	1.26mi	3/2.0	1,935 (+23%)	1mo	$362,500	$187	39
407 Oakview Dr	1.19mi	3/3.0	1,740 (+11%)	6mo	$299,900	$172	38
613 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.08mi	3/2.5	1,813 (+16%)	2mo	$401,190	$221	36
105 Tommy Dr	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-20%)	5mo	$295,000	$234	36
402 Winding Way	1.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,775 (+13%)	3mo	$350,000	$197	36
1301 Crofton Park Ct	1.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+14%)	1mo	$365,000	$204	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-103,008
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-150,255
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active
• Median asking: $159,900 ($100/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 61% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +90.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1509
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $169,036

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-697	-5% $-801	+0% $-904	+5% $-1,008	+10% $-1,112
Rent	-10% $-1,027	-5% $-966	+0% $-904	+5% $-843	+10% $-782
Rate	-1.0pp $-753	-0.5pp $-828	base $-904	+0.5pp $-982	+1.0pp $-1,061

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
552 Nightengale Ridge Dr , TN	3.0	2.5	2163	$2,600	$1.20	88d	1	1.27mi
1827 Goldsberry St Columbia, TN	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,795	$1.19	111d	1	1.28mi
304 Greenview Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	9d	1	1.31mi
1023 Chickasaw Trl Columbia, TN	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,400	$1.32	9d	1	1.33mi
1422 Club House Dr Columbia, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,923	$1.85	0d	14	1.40mi
213 Granada Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,225	$1.09	93d	1	1.40mi
721 Poplar St Unit A Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	139d	1	1.44mi
721 Poplar St Unit B Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	98d	1	1.44mi
206 Greenview Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	63d	1	1.47mi
1022 Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	82d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed price $179,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric serviceNatural gas service
• Home design: New construction plan home
• Construction: Living area approximately 1568Built as part of the Champion 95 Duck River Estates plan
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home (Champion 95 Duck River Estates)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $169,500 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $169,500 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $169,500 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $169,500 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $169,500 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $169,500 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $169,500 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $169,500 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $169,500 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $169,500 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $169,500 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $169,500 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $169,500 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $169,500 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $169,500 Active 170 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $169,500 Active 167 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $169,500 Active 165 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $169,500 Active 164 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $169,500 Active 163 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $169,500 Active 161 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $169,500 Active 160 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $169,500 Active 159 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $169,500 Active 158 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $169,500 Active 157 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $169,500 Active 156 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $169,500 Active 155 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $169,500 Active 154 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $169,500 Active 153 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $169,500 Active 152 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $169,500 Active 151 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $169,500 Active 150 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $169,500 Active 149 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $169,500 Active 148 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    price $169,500 Active 147 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $175,000 Active 147 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $175,000 Active 146 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 145 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 144 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 143 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $175,000 Active 142 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 141 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 140 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 139 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 136 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 134 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $175,000 Active 133 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $175,000 Active 131 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $175,000 Active 129 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $175,000 Active 128 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $175,000 Active 127 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$2,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$16,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,978
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,840–$23,520 screening

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Duck River Estates is in good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Riverside Elementary F TN #786/952 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Whitthorne Middle School F TN #257/333 Nat'l #13,307/14,009 High Columbia Central High School F TN #225/332 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 102,894 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed price $179,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric serviceNatural gas service
• Home design: New construction plan home
• Construction: Living area approximately 1568Built as part of the Champion 95 Duck River Estates plan
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home (Champion 95 Duck River Estates)