21621 Sandia Rd #130 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$178,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $139/sqft · 58% above area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2022 and first sold in 2024, this well-maintained home offers a nearly new feel in an established, gated 55+ community. The home features upgraded LED recessed lighting throughout, enhanced with convenient three-way switching, an upgraded kitchen sink, and a bright, open living area with mountain views. This home stands out from similar models in the community with added improvements, including an expanded concrete parking pad in front of the garage for additional driveway parking and a private concrete patio in the side yard. The gated community offers a wide range of amenities including a clubhouse with bingo and social activities, fitness center, pool and spa, shuffleboard courts, fenced and unfenced dog runs, and RV storage (subject to availability). Pet-friendly community. Park approval required. Buyer to verify space rent, park rules, pet restrictions, and community amenities.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Pool and spa

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• UPGRADED LED RECESSED LIGHTING
• EXPANDED CONCRETE PARKING PAD
• PRIVATE CONCRETE PATIO
• FITNESS CENTER
• POOL AND SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,980 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.64%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,650
• List price: $178,000
• Delta: 58.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21621 Sandia Rd #127	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	4mo	$155,000	$119	92
21621 Sandia Rd #95	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	6mo	$139,000	$107	91
21621 Sandia Rd #32	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+1%)	10mo	$105,000	$81	88
21621-100 Sandia Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	12mo	$115,000	$90	87
21621 Sandia Rd #65	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+1%)	15mo	$135,000	$104	83
21621 Sandia Rd #42	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-2%)	8mo	$110,000	$88	82
21621 Sandia Rd #92	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	14mo	$119,000	$89	78
21621 Sandia Rd #98	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-6%)	12mo	$121,000	$100	78
21621 Sandia Rd #163	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+8%)	14mo	$150,000	$108	73
21621 Sandia #83	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+14%)	3mo	$100,000	$69	72
21621 Sandia Rd #50	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	14mo	$135,000	$94	65
21621 Sandia Rd #105	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+12%)	12mo	$144,900	$101	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,305
• Equity at exit: $26,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $37,888
• Equity at exit: $15,390

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$222 /mo · $2,670/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,557

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11255 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,950	$1.70	43d	1	0.54mi
11515 Chimayo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,250	$1.53	43d	1	0.68mi
21490 Bear Valley Rd Apt A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,595	$1.82	20d	1	0.71mi
11045 Kiowa Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,825	$1.59	24d	1	1.06mi
12406 Pawnee Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,200	$1.48	16d	1	1.11mi
12212 Kiowa Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,700	$1.72	5d	1	1.17mi
21777 Panoche Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,400	$1.51	2d	1	1.17mi
21777 Panoche Rd Unit 5 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,450	$1.56	5d	1	1.17mi
21181 Balsa St Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	43d	1	1.34mi
10547 Cochiti Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	927	$1,649	$1.78	43d	1	1.37mi
12401 Tesuque Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,245	$1.49	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-01-31
   listed $178,000 Active 904-char remark

   Show marketing remark (904 chars)

   Built in 2022 and first sold in 2024, this well-maintained home offers a nearly new feel in an established, gated 55+ community. The home features upgraded LED recessed lighting throughout, enhanced with convenient three-way switching, an upgraded kitchen sink, and a bright, open living area with mountain views. This home stands out from similar models in the community with added improvements, including an expanded concrete parking pad in front of the garage for additional driveway parking and a private concrete patio in the side yard. The gated community offers a wide range of amenities including a clubhouse with bingo and social activities, fitness center, pool and spa, shuffleboard courts, fenced and unfenced dog runs, and RV storage (subject to availability). Pet-friendly community. Park approval required. Buyer to verify space rent, park rules, pet restrictions, and community amenities.

2. 2026-01-19
   historical
3. 2025-11-18
   price $166,300
4. 2025-11-01
   price $186,000
5. 2025-09-29
   listed $189,000 Active
6. 2024-03-04
   soldstatus $178,000 Closed Sale
7. 2024-03-02
   status Pending Sale
8. 2023-08-06
   price $178,000
9. 2023-08-06
   listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$2,670
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable income: $1,563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$375
• After-tax cash flow: $3,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022-built manufactured home in a gated 55+ community is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a nearly new feel with upgrades and amenities, making it a good investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Listed $178,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $166,300 CRMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $186,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-04 Sold (MLS) $178,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-08-06 Price Changed $178,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-06 Listed $189,000 CRMLS