415 Garrett Ridge Ct · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2006 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in Winter Haven. Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering an open and inviting layout with vaulted ceilings and a spacious family room designed for comfortable everyday living. Tile flooring flows seamlessly through the main living areas and into the galley kitchen, creating a bright and cohesive feel throughout the home. Built with durable block construction, this property also features a single car garage. Step outside to enjoy a beautifully shaded lot, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests in a private outdoor setting. This is a Short Sale. Professionally processed by ARII SOLUTIONS, LLC. Buyer Responsible Short Sale Processing Fee of $5,000. Please review ''Presentation of Offers'' document before submitting offer. Property sold as-is

Key facts

• Shaded lot
• Galley kitchen
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• TILE FLOORING
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• SHADED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.92%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-837
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $25,003
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,078/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $396	+0% $357	+5% $317	+10% $277
Rent	-10% $216	-5% $286	+0% $357	+5% $427	+10% $497
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $392	base $357	+0.5pp $320	+1.0pp $283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending 785-char remark

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   Investor opportunity in Winter Haven. Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering an open and inviting layout with vaulted ceilings and a spacious family room designed for comfortable everyday living. Tile flooring flows seamlessly through the main living areas and into the galley kitchen, creating a bright and cohesive feel throughout the home. Built with durable block construction, this property also features a single car garage. Step outside to enjoy a beautifully shaded lot, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests in a private outdoor setting. This is a Short Sale. Professionally processed by ARII SOLUTIONS, LLC. Buyer Responsible Short Sale Processing Fee of $5,000. Please review ''Presentation of Offers'' document before submitting offer. Property sold as-is

2. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-05
   price $140,000
4. 2026-02-27
   price $140,000 785-char remark

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   Investor opportunity in Winter Haven. Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering an open and inviting layout with vaulted ceilings and a spacious family room designed for comfortable everyday living. Tile flooring flows seamlessly through the main living areas and into the galley kitchen, creating a bright and cohesive feel throughout the home. Built with durable block construction, this property also features a single car garage. Step outside to enjoy a beautifully shaded lot, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests in a private outdoor setting. This is a Short Sale. Professionally processed by ARII SOLUTIONS, LLC. Buyer Responsible Short Sale Processing Fee of $5,000. Please review ''Presentation of Offers'' document before submitting offer. Property sold as-is

5. 2026-02-20
   listed $170,000 Active 785-char remark

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   Investor opportunity in Winter Haven. Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering an open and inviting layout with vaulted ceilings and a spacious family room designed for comfortable everyday living. Tile flooring flows seamlessly through the main living areas and into the galley kitchen, creating a bright and cohesive feel throughout the home. Built with durable block construction, this property also features a single car garage. Step outside to enjoy a beautifully shaded lot, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests in a private outdoor setting. This is a Short Sale. Professionally processed by ARII SOLUTIONS, LLC. Buyer Responsible Short Sale Processing Fee of $5,000. Please review ''Presentation of Offers'' document before submitting offer. Property sold as-is

6. 2026-02-20
   listed $170,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   Investor opportunity in Winter Haven. Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering an open and inviting layout with vaulted ceilings and a spacious family room designed for comfortable everyday living. Tile flooring flows seamlessly through the main living areas and into the galley kitchen, creating a bright and cohesive feel throughout the home. Built with durable block construction, this property also features a single car garage. Step outside to enjoy a beautifully shaded lot, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests in a private outdoor setting. This is a Short Sale. Professionally processed by ARII SOLUTIONS, LLC. Buyer Responsible Short Sale Processing Fee of $5,000. Please review ''Presentation of Offers'' document before submitting offer. Property sold as-is

7. 2022-09-20
   soldstatus $239,000
8. 2022-09-16
   soldstatus $239,000 Closed 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Come see this well loved 3 bed 2 bath home! This home sits on 0.28 acre with mature landscaping, oak trees and is completely fenced. It is in a centrally located area close to Polk Parkway with easy access to I-4 and is within close driving distance to Lakeland, Bartow, and Auburndale. New refrigerator. Open floor plan. No HOA!

9. 2022-08-01
   status Pending 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Come see this well loved 3 bed 2 bath home! This home sits on 0.28 acre with mature landscaping, oak trees and is completely fenced. It is in a centrally located area close to Polk Parkway with easy access to I-4 and is within close driving distance to Lakeland, Bartow, and Auburndale. New refrigerator. Open floor plan. No HOA!

10. 2022-07-26
    status Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Come see this well loved 3 bed 2 bath home! This home sits on 0.28 acre with mature landscaping, oak trees and is completely fenced. It is in a centrally located area close to Polk Parkway with easy access to I-4 and is within close driving distance to Lakeland, Bartow, and Auburndale. New refrigerator. Open floor plan. No HOA!

11. 2022-07-17
    status Pending 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Come see this well loved 3 bed 2 bath home! This home sits on 0.28 acre with mature landscaping, oak trees and is completely fenced. It is in a centrally located area close to Polk Parkway with easy access to I-4 and is within close driving distance to Lakeland, Bartow, and Auburndale. New refrigerator. Open floor plan. No HOA!

12. 2022-07-12
    listed $239,000 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Come see this well loved 3 bed 2 bath home! This home sits on 0.28 acre with mature landscaping, oak trees and is completely fenced. It is in a centrally located area close to Polk Parkway with easy access to I-4 and is within close driving distance to Lakeland, Bartow, and Auburndale. New refrigerator. Open floor plan. No HOA!

13. 2011-01-27
    soldstatus $32,000
14. 2010-06-25
    listed $54,900
15. 2006-02-17
    soldstatus $144,000
16. 2006-02-15
    soldstatus $144,000
17. 2005-08-16
    soldstatus $13,200
18. 2005-08-06
    listed $150,000
19. 1996-12-11
    soldstatus $10,000
20. 1995-10-06
    soldstatus $13,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,078 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,078 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,078
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$538
• After-tax cash flow: $3,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+960.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $140,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $170,000 realMLS
• 2022-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $239,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-16 Sold (MLS) $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-12 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-27 Sold (MLS) $32,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-25 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-15 Sold (MLS) $144,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $13,200 Public Records
• 2005-08-06 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $13,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,078 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.