14316 Leafy Willow Dr · Splendora, TX 77372

$227,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Land · 394 Days on market

Built 2025 4,800 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

AMAZING NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY 4 BEDROOM IN THE CANOPIES! Excellent Location! Wonderful Open Concept Interior Layout + Great Split Plan Design! Island Kitchen Opens to Spacious Dining Area & Large Living Room! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bath with Large Shower & BIG Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Indoor Utility Room with Access into Garage! Wonderful Community with Park - PLUS Easy Access to Highway 59! Move In Ready!

Key facts

• Large shower
• Island kitchen
• Large living room

Tags

• CORNER LOT LOCATION
• OPEN CONCEPT INTERIOR LAYOUT
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• LARGE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Vision Communities Management; Annual association fee; Community amenities: pool, playground, park, picnic area, trails, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Southeast-facing; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2025; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Disposal; Quartz countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 14 x 12; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Walk-in pantry; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 548 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $200,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.32%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-22,365
• Equity at exit: $33,994

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-850
• Equity at exit: $19,712

Cash invested: $63,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,820

Max offer price $227,990

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $359	-5% $294	+0% $230	+5% $165	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $146	+0% $230	+5% $313	+10% $396
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $288	base $230	+0.5pp $171	+1.0pp $111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,998
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $227,990 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,990 Active 391 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,990 Active 390 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,990 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,990 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,990 Active 386 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,990 Active 385 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,990 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,990 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,990 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $227,990 Active 377 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,990 Active 376 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,990 Active 375 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricestatus $227,990 Active 374 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,990 Active Under Contract 374 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,990 Active Under Contract 373 DOM
17. 2026-04-05
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2026-03-23
    price $233,990
19. 2026-03-16
    price $234,990
20. 2026-03-10
    price $237,990
21. 2026-01-09
    status Active
22. 2026-01-09
    price $238,880
23. 2025-11-01
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2025-10-30
    price $232,990
25. 2025-10-30
    status Active
26. 2025-08-05
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2025-07-22
    price $238,990
28. 2025-07-18
    price $240,990
29. 2025-07-04
    price $242,990
30. 2025-06-24
    price $244,990
31. 2025-06-05
    price $249,990
32. 2025-05-23
    listed $254,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,172 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,165/yr (+$264/mo · 314.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,771
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$6,632
• Taxable loss: −$1,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$248
• After-tax cash flow: $3,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $233,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $238,880 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $232,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $238,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $240,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $242,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $254,990 HARMLS