1507 Willow Creek Ln · Irmo, SC 29212

$229,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1984 0.29 ac lot Est $255k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers the perfect combination of comfort, updates, and location. Inside, you’ll love the fresh new carpet throughout, spacious living room with a cozy wood-burning fireplace, and open kitchen overlooking the backyard - perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs features generously sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with dual closets and private bath. Step outside to enjoy the awesome back deck and large fenced-in backyard offering both privacy and convenience, plus a storage shed and attached exterior storage room. Major updates include the roof and HVAC replaced in 2020, and all appliances including washer and dryer convey. Gr

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Storage shed
• Back deck

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BACK DECK
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• ATTACHED EXTERIOR STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 6 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home
• Construction: Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fiber-Masonite exterior finish; Paved road access; 0.29-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the second level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main half bath; One additional partial bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total heated area: 1,536

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-154/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#38 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lexington 05 (suburban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 80 in SC (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nursery Road Elementary (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #286 of 597 statewide, top 49%, 450 students, 100% FRL); Irmo High (math 27% / reading 82%, grade C-, #130 of 196 statewide, top 69%, 1,307 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 27% district-wide (73 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,692 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,976
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1816 Shadowood Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,718 (+12%)	1mo	$285,000	$166	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-43,332
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-59,136
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29212

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,287/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,783

Max offer price $227,637

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1220 Meredith Dr Columbia, SC	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1083	$1,889	$1.74	2d	7	0.95mi
1 Crescent Ln Columbia, SC	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,380	$1.06	2d	1	1.21mi
289 Rolling Rock Rd Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,750	$1.41	23d	1	1.28mi
104 Tuscany Ct Irmo, SC	3.0	2.5	1248	$1,850	$1.48	14d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $229,900 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $229,900 Active - Contingent 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,310 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,287
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$4,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,006
• After-tax cash flow: $852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 05
• NCES district ID: 4502820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,732
• Composite: 45.28/100
• National rank: #2656
• State rank: #5 of 80 in SC

Livability — Irmo

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #5024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 38,201
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 27,657
• Household income: $77,142
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.55%
• Current HPI: 212.5173
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.23%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+200.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Relisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $229,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2024-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $229,900 Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2024-06-05 Listed $227,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2022-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-25 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2022-03-22 Price Changed $204,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2022-03-22 Listed $174,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2005-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 1989-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,287 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.