215 Whispering Willow Dr · Redwood, OR 97527

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,769 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1991 $71/sqft · 22% above area Est $102k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Really nice triple wide home in a really nice 55+ community. All appliances are included. Owner winters in CA so the home is only lived in half as much.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• 4 skylights
• 2 car carport

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• 4 SKYLIGHTS
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• SMALL GARDEN AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $675
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; No CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport
• Security: No audio or video surveillance on premises
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (in park); Triple wide; One story; May remain in park
• Construction: Built in 1991; Composition roof; Block foundation; Vinyl and wood skirting
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Level lot; Sprinkler timer; Sprinklers front and rear; Shared access road; Paved road; Shed(s); Skylights; Vinyl window frames; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Double vanity; Fiberglass stall shower; Shower/tub combo; Walk-in closets; Primary bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 2.6% in Redwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#213 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Grants Pass SD 7 (urban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #66 of 183 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 223 units permitted in Josephine County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Josephine County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $125k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.32%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,450
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: 21.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Red Oak Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+1%)	1mo	$105,000	$59	92
310 Whispering Willow Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-5%)	2mo	$92,000	$55	86
137 Blue Spruce Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,701 (-4%)	11mo	$91,500	$54	83
2398 Sasha Ct	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+0%)	0mo	$130,000	$73	80
1418 SW Redfin Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-5%)	6mo	$340,000	$202	75
1260 Willow Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-3%)	16mo	$99,500	$58	75
2327 Bradley Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-2%)	16mo	$169,000	$98	72
298 Whispering Willow Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-14%)	3mo	$88,000	$58	70
1514 Agape Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-5%)	7mo	$148,900	$89	68
2387 Mulberry Ct	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-14%)	7mo	$83,000	$55	57
2371 Ryan Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (-15%)	12mo	$133,000	$88	49
1426 Willow Ct	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-14%)	14mo	$110,000	$73	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $45,413
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $124,341
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97527

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $747/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $1,029

Break-even live

Break-even rent $974

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 SW Otter Ct Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,395	$1.55	44d	1	0.11mi
109 SW Otter Ct Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,395	$1.55	44d	1	0.11mi
1605 Kokanee Ln Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,200	$1.43	44d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 508-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $124,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   status $124,900 Pending 33 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-04-28
    listed $130,000 Active 439-char remark
13. 2015-06-12
    soldstatus $55,000 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    Really nice triple wide home in a really nice 55+ community. All appliances are included. Owner winters in CA so the home is only lived in half as much.

14. 2015-05-15
    listed $55,000 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    Really nice triple wide home in a really nice 55+ community. All appliances are included. Owner winters in CA so the home is only lived in half as much.

15. 1991-05-01
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $747 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$465/yr (+$39/mo · 62.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$747
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $10,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,628
• After-tax cash flow: $9,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants Pass SD 7
• NCES district ID: 4105910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,433
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #7281
• State rank: #66 of 183 in OR

Livability — Redwood

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #14443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redwood, OR
• County: Josephine County · 73,366 people
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• Population (ZIP): 37,330
• Household income: $66,975
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Josephine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,883 people
• By 2030: 89,055 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 90,396 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 90,801 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 89,880 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 81,252 · -7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Josephine

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.1) · D 34.2% · R 63.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.2pp · 2024: -29.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.1 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.09%
• Current HPI: 318.0477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.05%
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+123.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-06-01 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $124,900 MLSCO
• 2026-04-28 Listed $130,000 MLSCO
• 2015-06-12 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MLSCO
• 2015-05-15 Listed $55,000 MLSCO
• 1991-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $747 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.