Quincy Plan · Woodbury, MN 55129

$498,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,515 sqft · SingleFamily · 460 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

Key facts

• Open kitchen
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 460 days

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• SUNLIT GATHERING ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $498,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $584,406.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $409k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $358k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $358k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#6 in MN, #153 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 460 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $357,768 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 460 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.89%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $584,406
• List price: $498,990
• Delta: -14.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10445 Duval Rd	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,404 (-4%)	11mo	$578,285	$241	75
5016 Useppa Trl	0.60mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,505 (-0%)	16mo	$492,715	$197	51
10652 Wiles Way	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,228 (-11%)	23mo	$445,000	$200	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-172,182
• Equity at exit: $87,137

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-250,465
• Equity at exit: $50,529

Cash invested: $163,634 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55129

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,065
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$731 /mo · $8,766/yr
• Insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$751
• Net cashflow: $-1,212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,112

Max offer price $408,980

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $146,101
• Closing costs: $17,532
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4644 Oak Point Ln Saint Paul, MN	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2239	$4,160	$1.86	1d	7	0.21mi
10108 Sunbird Cir Saint Paul, MN	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1815	$3,700	$2.04	1d	7	0.55mi
10692 Wiles Way Saint Paul, MN	3.0	3.0	1777	$2,600	$1.46	43d	1	0.67mi
11007 Oakgrove Cir Woodbury, MN	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,400	$1.31	43d	1	0.88mi
8797 Granite Cir Saint Paul, MN	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,450	$1.29	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $498,990 Active 460 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $498,990 Active 459 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $498,990 Active 458 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $498,990 Active 457 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $498,990 Active 455 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $498,990 Active 454 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $498,990 Active 451 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $498,990 Active 450 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $498,990 Active 449 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $498,990 Active 446 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $498,990 Active 445 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $498,990 Active 444 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $498,990 Active 443 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $498,990 Active 442 DOM
15. 2026-03-08
    price $498,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

16. 2026-02-08
    price $496,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

17. 2026-01-11
    price $494,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

18. 2025-12-13
    price $488,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

19. 2025-10-05
    price $483,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

20. 2025-09-07
    price $481,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

21. 2025-08-13
    price $476,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

22. 2025-07-04
    price $471,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

23. 2025-05-01
    price $469,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

24. 2025-04-03
    price $466,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

25. 2025-03-16
    listed $464,990 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    The Quincy offers versatility, serving as a private retreat or a space for quality family time. On the main floor, a flexible area off the foyer can be utilized as a den, dining room, home office, or children's play area - the possibilities are limitless. The open kitchen seamlessly connects to the cafe area and the sunlit gathering room, creating a harmonious flow throughout.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,736
• − Property taxes: −$8,766
• − Insurance: −$2,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,435
• − Management: −$3,435
• − Depreciation: −$17,001
• Taxable loss: −$25,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,087
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Woodbury

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #153

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbury, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 78,305
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,120
• Household income: $143,795
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Asian 17% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.89%
• Current HPI: 216.0248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.91%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+7.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $498,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $496,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $494,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $488,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $483,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $481,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $476,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $471,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $469,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $466,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-16 Listed $464,990 Zillow