11 Hillbrook Way · Pensacola, FL 32503

$209,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,185 sqft · Townhouse · 265 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition 4.09 ac lot $96/sqft · 15% below area Est $246k · 15% under $422/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss the opportunity to be in this great location. Check out this end unit at Hillbrook Townhomes Condominium, centrally located in Pensacola, close to Cordova Mall, Pensacola Airport and Sacred Heart Hospital! Just 15 minutes to Pensacola Beach. This unit features 2 decks, three bedrooms, two full baths, a half bath, and a bonus room. Amenities include a community complex (clubhouse) with an exercise room, a community room, a pool, and a tennis court. Includes two assigned parking spaces. HOA includes exterior landscaping, exterior insurance, water, trash, amenities, and roof. Roof 2021. HVAC/Water heater 2018. New travertine and LVP flooring in 2021. No carpet! Interior painted in 2023.

Key facts

• Tennis court
• Exercise room
• Bonus room

Tags

• TWO DECKS
• BONUS ROOM
• EXERCISE ROOM
• COMMUNITY ROOM
• POOL
• TENNIS COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (8.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Pensacola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in FL, #924 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: O. J. Semmes Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,105 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 302 students, 91% FRL); Ferry Pass Middle School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 1,014 students, 64% FRL); Washington Senior High School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #411 of 667 statewide, top 62%, 1,733 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,054
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -14.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4252 Acacia Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,732 (-21%)	3mo	$285,000	$165	59
744 Boxwood Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-21%)	3mo	$158,500	$92	57
3070 Magnolia Ave	1.43mi	3/2.0	2,102 (-4%)	3mo	$500,000	$238	54
1900 Morningside Dr	0.85mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,083 (-5%)	0mo	$470,000	$226	50
4770 Skyline Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-21%)	2mo	$285,000	$165	46
5821 Creek Station Dr	1.18mi	3/2.5	1,929 (-12%)	3mo	$392,500	$203	43
1304 E Fisher	1.48mi	3/2.5	1,907 (-13%)	2mo	$739,000	$388	42
5931 Otter Point Rd	1.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,503 (+15%)	1mo	$562,000	$225	35
3530 Dunwody Dr	1.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,860 (-15%)	3mo	$490,000	$263	32
2321 Arriviste Way	1.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,710 (+24%)	2mo	$650,000	$240	32
2102 Semur Rd	1.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,672 (+22%)	2mo	$580,000	$217	31
3300 Baisden Rd	1.39mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,630 (+20%)	3mo	$730,000	$278	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-40,382
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-40,060
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active
• Median asking: $295,000 ($135/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -16.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32503

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,221 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,148/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$422
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,370

Max offer price $192,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-46	+0% $-118	+5% $-191	+10% $-263
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-206	+0% $-118	+5% $-31	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-65	base $-118	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4400 N 9th Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.5	1713	$2,000	$1.17	119d	1	0.12mi
4827 Birchwood Pl Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,860	$1.32	61d	1	0.55mi
3760 Bayou Blvd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,300	$1.37	61d	1	0.74mi
5230 Springhill Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,795	$1.16	6d	1	0.80mi
2135 Summit Blvd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	2073	$2,900	$1.40	3d	1	0.94mi
1401 E 34th St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1713	$2,400	$1.40	6d	1	0.95mi
711 Underwood Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	950	$1,833	$1.93	0d	20	1.37mi
5930 Hermitage Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	2301	$3,350	$1.46	6d	1	1.46mi
606 E Leonard St Pensacola, FL	3.0	3.0	1656	$3,200	$1.93	6d	1	1.46mi
3791 Maule Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$3,250	$1.62	119d	1	1.48mi
3014 Magnolia Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,750	$1.67	119d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail $422/mo · $5,064/yr

• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingpoolparking

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $209,900 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $209,900 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $209,900 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $209,900 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $209,900 Active 256 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $209,900 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $209,900 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $209,900 Active 253 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $209,900 Active 247 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    price $209,900 Active 246 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 246 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 245 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 242 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $219,900 Active 241 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $219,900 Active 240 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $219,900 Active 239 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $219,900 Active 238 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $219,900 Active 237 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $219,900 Active 236 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $219,900 Active 235 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $219,900 Active 234 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $219,900 Active 233 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $219,900 Active 232 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $219,900 Active 231 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $219,900 Active 230 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $219,900 Active 229 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $219,900 Active 228 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $229,900 Active 227 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $229,900 Active 226 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $229,900 Active 225 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $229,900 Active 224 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $229,900 Active 223 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $229,900 Active 222 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $229,900 Active 221 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $229,900 Active 220 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 219 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 218 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $229,900 Active 217 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 216 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 215 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 214 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 211 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 210 DOM
49. 2026-07-29
    days on market $229,900 Active 209 DOM
50. 2026-07-27
    days on market $229,900 Active 207 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,148
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − HOA: −$5,064
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$4,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $-282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,925–$32,775 screening

This townhouse is in good condition with recent updates, including a new roof and HVAC. It offers a good balance of maintenance and updates, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Replace damaged landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary O. J. Semmes Elementary School F FL #2,105/2,144 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle J. H. Workman Middle School F FL #536/571 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Washington Senior High School F FL #411/667 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Pensacola

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #924

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pensacola, FL
• County: Escambia County · 334,637 people
• City population: 237,636
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,559
• Household income: $71,411
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.02%
• Current HPI: 294.4873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.39%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $239,777 PARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $246,777 PARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $248,777 PARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $247,777 PARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $249,777 PARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $254,777 PARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $259,777 PARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $264,777 PARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $270,777 PARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Sold (MLS) $287,459 PARMLS
• 2024-04-11 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listed $285,000 PARMLS