4203 11th Street Ct E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1968 2,919 sqft lot Est $110k · 18% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Tidevue Estates land-owned active 55+ community! This turn-key furnished home is move-in ready and perfectly located near the recreational center and community pool. Enjoy peace of mind with a brand-new A/C in 2025, updated front door in 2025, and updated windows throughout. The open kitchen offers plenty of counter space and flows seamlessly into the bright living and dining areas, creating an inviting space for entertaining family and friends. The spacious primary bedroom features dual closets, a built-in dresser, and an updated en-suite bathroom with a walk-in shower. Relax year-round in the lanai with acrylic windows, the perfect spot to enjoy Florida’s beautiful winter

Key facts

• Updated front door
• Brand-new a/c
• Recreational center

Tags

• LAND-OWNED ACTIVE COMMUNITY
• RECREATIONAL CENTER
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BRAND-NEW A/C
• UPDATED FRONT DOOR
• UPDATED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey / furnished; Total rooms: 8
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tidevue Estates Civic Organization) with required approval; HOA dues $50 monthly ($600 annually); HOA amenities include fitness center, laundry, park, pickleball courts, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Community features: association-owned recreation, deed restrictions, fitness center, golf carts allowed, park, pool, street lights; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Metal roof with roof over; Built as a double wide
• Exterior features: Awnings; Private mailbox; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Outdoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,463/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $130k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.14%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,400
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1416 41st Ave E	0.26mi	2/2.0	800 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$200	81
4603 10th Street Ct E	0.27mi	2/1.5	780 (-2%)	3mo	$108,000	$138	79
1532 47th Avenue Dr E	0.50mi	2/1.0	784 (-2%)	1mo	$129,900	$166	73
1204 43rd Ave E	0.10mi	2/2.0	903 (+13%)	4mo	$73,500	$81	67
1413 41st Ave E	0.26mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-10%)	5mo	$68,000	$94	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $46,807
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $128,208
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,463 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,145/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,139	-5% $1,102	+0% $1,065	+5% $1,028	+10% $991
Rent	-10% $870	-5% $968	+0% $1,065	+5% $1,162	+10% $1,260
Rate	-1.0pp $1,130	-0.5pp $1,098	base $1,065	+0.5pp $1,031	+1.0pp $997

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	24d	1	0.38mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	4d	1	0.59mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	4d	13	0.60mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	4d	15	0.66mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $129,900 Active
16. 2014-04-06
    historical
17. 2014-04-06
    price $55,000
18. 2014-02-20
    listed $58,500 Active
19. 2002-04-05
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,145
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $11,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,730
• After-tax cash flow: $10,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+176.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-06 Price Changed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-20 Listed $58,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,145 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.