1410 N Jetty Ave SW · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$269,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1998 8,007 sqft lot $242/sqft · 27% below area Est $369k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your perfect getaway cottage, located in the sand dune area with easy access to the beaches! Open living concept for easy living and entertaining, cathedral ceilings in the living area and has access to the large back deck for relaxing or entertaining! There is an attached storage shed on the back deck for storing the BBQ. Plus, a detached storage shed.

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Cathedral ceilings
• Open living concept

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO THE BEACHES
• OPEN LIVING CONCEPT
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• LARGE BACK DECK
• ATTACHED STORAGE SHED
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Shores Elementary (240 students, 76% FRL); North Beach Junior High School (162 students, 78% FRL); North Beach Senior High School (177 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 655 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,883 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,953
• List price: $269,500
• Delta: -26.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
423 S Spinnaker St SW	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,122 (+1%)	2mo	$355,000	$316	84
1421 Ocean Crest Ave SW	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+0%)	10mo	$339,777	$304	81
461 S Portal Loop SW	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,251 (+12%)	2mo	$395,000	$316	75
419 N Portal Loop SW	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,076 (-3%)	1mo	$312,000	$290	74
1338 Lemans Ct SW	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,048 (-6%)	11mo	$356,500	$340	65
1233 Camero Loop SW	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (+1%)	8mo	$370,000	$329	63
1383 Sand Pebble Ave	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (-9%)	5mo	$365,900	$361	62
1463 E Ocean Shores Blvd SW	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (+9%)	7mo	$375,000	$308	59
1225 Storm King Ave SW	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,016 (-9%)	0mo	$315,000	$310	56
416 S Bel Air Loop SW	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (-14%)	8mo	$320,000	$333	52
1272 Cutlass Ct	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (+10%)	3mo	$275,000	$225	52
1234 Galaxy Ct	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-14%)	9mo	$340,000	$354	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-54,224
• Equity at exit: $40,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-61,066
• Equity at exit: $23,301

Cash invested: $75,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,107

Max offer price $240,486

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-88	+0% $-164	+5% $-241	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-239	+0% $-164	+5% $-89	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-96	base $-164	+0.5pp $-234	+1.0pp $-305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,375
• Closing costs: $8,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $269,500 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,500 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,500 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,500 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,500 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,500 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,500 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $269,500 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,500 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,500 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,500 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,500 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,500 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,500 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,500 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,500 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,500 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-03-27
    listed $287,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,641 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$976/yr (+$81/mo · 58.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥72°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,096
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$7,840
• Taxable loss: −$6,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,634
• After-tax cash flow: $-337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $287,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,665 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.