17 Carlson Ave · Danville, VA 24541

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1920 0.26 ac lot Est $114k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This little Bungalow is so well-kept and cute as can be. The home needs a few exterior updates, but is ready for a tenant. In fact, there is a long term tenant in place that loves this home and wants to stay. Make this a great deal for yourself and the wonderful tenant.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $89,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$113,796) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 5.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Schoolfield Elementary (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,108 statewide, top 91%, 500 students, 98% FRL); O. Trent Bonner Middle (math 33% / reading 53%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 678 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.60%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,796
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Dula St	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+1%)	11mo	$134,900	$128	76
37 Stokesland Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,020 (-2%)	11mo	$110,000	$108	75
69 Morris Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	960 (-8%)	10mo	$134,900	$141	70
142 Stokesland Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,084 (+4%)	4mo	$138,000	$127	69
27 Still St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,069 (+2%)	7mo	$132,000	$123	67
53 Fairfield Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	996 (-5%)	2mo	$108,000	$108	62
46 Baltimore Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-4%)	1mo	$80,000	$80	62
53 Schoolfield Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,091 (+4%)	12mo	$95,000	$87	60
57 Fairfield Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-4%)	11mo	$109,000	$109	55
94 Fairfield Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	960 (-8%)	8mo	$66,500	$69	50
37 Baltimore Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0	924 (-12%)	1mo	$45,000	$49	48
103 Fairway Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,092 (+5%)	4mo	$185,000	$169	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $8,915
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $37,896
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24541

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $281/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $674

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
66 Carlson Ave Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	966	$1,000	$1.04	44d	1	0.14mi
107 Baltimore Ave Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	902	$914	$1.01	21d	1	0.74mi
732 Hughes St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	44d	1	1.05mi
721 Chatham Ave Unit A Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	13d	1	1.07mi
380 Juless St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$775	$0.99	44d	1	1.21mi
378 Juless St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$775	$0.99	44d	1	1.21mi
671 Park Ave Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	942	$1,100	$1.17	44d	1	1.22mi
181 Banner St Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,389	$1.18	44d	1	1.32mi
337 Wimbish Dr Unit 337 Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	934	$1,525	$1.63	44d	1	1.32mi
119 Martin Ave Danville, VA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	1.44mi
317 Dudley St Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	840	$914	$1.09	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 270-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $281 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$456/yr (+$38/mo · 162.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$281
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,096
• − Management: −$1,096
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $3,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$749
• After-tax cash flow: $3,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,042
• Household income: $51,427
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 39% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.28%
• Current HPI: 238.5992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $89,900 DRRAR

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $281 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.