8407 192nd Street Ct E #151 · Graham, WA 98387

$158,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Land · 38 Days on market

Built 2001

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-bed, 2-bath home in the highly sought-after gated Crystal Pointe All Age Park! Large corner lot with fully fenced yard, vaulted ceilings, AC, and plenty of natural light. Open-concept layout featuring primary suite with a 5 piece ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet on one side and additional bedrooms with walk in closets on the other. 2-car carport with storage + plenty of driveway parking. Updates include 2-year-old roof (with 5yr workmanship/30yr manufacturer warranty), new fence, new LVP flooring, and new stainless steel appliances that stay. Close to shopping & dining. Home is on leased land; special conventional financing required. Call friendly listing agent with any

Key facts

• Natural light
• Vaulted ceilings
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• GATED CRYSTAL POINTE PARK
• CORNER LOT
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller-reported building area 1620; Calculated square footage 1620; Built as a manufactured home (style code: Manuf-Double Wide); Current status: Active
• Financial info: Accepts Cash and Conventional financing
• HOA & community: Located in Crystal Pointe (park); Park amenities include security gate; Pets allowed: see remarks; Land lease: $1,209

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Uncovered parking
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water (Washington Water); TPU power company; Electric water heater located in laundry room
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Entry; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Composition roof; Tie-down foundation; Manufactured house structure; Double pane windows
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; Open space; Paved; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Water heater; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet; Awnings; Landscaped; Patio/porch/deck; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room (laundry room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.6% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#373 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $154,229 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.20%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $80,611
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $219,719
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98387

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,378 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,992/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $1,603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,349

Max offer price $158,999

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,693	-5% $1,648	+0% $1,603	+5% $1,558	+10% $1,513
Rent	-10% $1,336	-5% $1,469	+0% $1,603	+5% $1,736	+10% $1,870
Rate	-1.0pp $1,683	-0.5pp $1,643	base $1,603	+0.5pp $1,562	+1.0pp $1,520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19605 84th Ave E Spanaway, WA	3.0	2.5	1916	$3,050	$1.59	25d	1	0.24mi
18317 96th Ave E Puyallup, WA	4.0	2.5	2150	$5,500	$2.56	44d	1	0.88mi
20519 80th Ave E Spanaway, WA	4.0	2.5	2031	$2,925	$1.44	6d	1	0.89mi
18511 97th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	2104	$2,895	$1.38	19d	1	0.89mi
19906 100th Avenue Ct E Graham, WA	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,749	$2.08	17d	1	1.05mi
20121 70th Ave E Spanaway, WA	4.0	3.0	1680	$2,950	$1.76	0d	1	1.08mi
7513 177th Street Ct E Puyallup, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1243	$3,210	$2.58	11d	7	1.11mi
17908 72nd Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1719	$1,400	$0.81	25d	1	1.12mi
10110 184th St E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1582	$2,595	$1.64	44d	1	1.16mi
7343 177th St E Puyallup, WA	3.0	3.0	1962	$2,795	$1.42	23d	1	1.17mi
10423 Rainier Ridge Blvd E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$3,330	$3.22	0d	27	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $158,999 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,999 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,999 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,999 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,999 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,999 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $158,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,999 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,999 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $158,999 Active
17. 2005-02-07
    soldstatus $7,731,263

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,992
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,243
• − Management: −$3,243
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $17,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,256
• After-tax cash flow: $14,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Graham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #373
• US rank: #14219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,687
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,774
• Household income: $106,872
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 10% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.94%
• Current HPI: 308.0462
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-97.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $158,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $7,731,263 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,992 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.