2561 Birch Ave · The Villages, FL 32162

$335,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2007 3,520 sqft lot Est $286k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CABOT COVE PATIO VILLA IN DUVAL. Great location for access to recreation and town squares. Tile flooring in the front entrance screened patio area. Inside laundry is always a desirable feature. The kitchen has whitebay cabinets to make it feel large, light and bright. Laminate flooring in living and dining areas. Walk-in closet in master bedroom is incredible with the organized cabinetry. All furnishings and kitchen items are included, unless tagged as does not convey.

Key facts

• Hvac july 2025
• Roof aug 2023
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• HVAC JULY 2025
• ROOF AUG 2023
• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UTILITY FAUCET IN GARAGE
• SCREEN DOORS FOR THE GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey furnished; Association fee includes security
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Dog park; Fitness center; Golf; Park; Playground; Community pool; Street lights; Senior community; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1-car garage; Golf cart garage
• Security: Community security (included in association fee)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Villa (residential); One level; West-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area reported
• Exterior features: Front porch; Irrigation equipment; Mature landscaping; Level lot; Brick and paved road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $276k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,435 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,308
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2507 Everwood Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,188 (0%)	3mo	$305,000	$257	94
1358 Hollyberry Pl	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	3mo	$280,000	$242	87
2543 Raintree Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-7%)	1mo	$285,500	$260	84
2371 Camden Ter	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,182 (-0%)	5mo	$285,000	$241	84
2376 Branchville Ter	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	1mo	$250,000	$216	82
2369 Travis Pl	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	4mo	$235,000	$203	78
2672 Sandhill Ct	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	2mo	$260,000	$225	78
2677 English Ivy Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+4%)	1mo	$299,900	$242	77
1380 Tallowtree Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+4%)	6mo	$245,000	$198	67
1814 Hallandale Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	1mo	$280,000	$242	62
1808 Hallandale Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	1mo	$275,000	$238	62
1858 Endsley Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	1mo	$270,000	$234	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-59,972
• Equity at exit: $49,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-52,538
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,624 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,650/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,785

Max offer price $312,512

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2383 Camden Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	21d	1	0.22mi
2372 Travis Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	21d	1	0.30mi
2368 McClellanville Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$4,800	$4.20	21d	1	0.40mi
1607 Allendale Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,800	$2.42	21d	1	0.45mi
2014 Johnson Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	21d	1	0.99mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,054	$1.89	21d	28	1.17mi
2290 Nackman Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,800	$2.66	21d	1	1.26mi
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	21d	1	1.29mi
2280 Biscayne Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	21d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $335,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $335,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $335,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $335,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $335,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $335,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $335,000 Active
17. 2022-02-25
    soldstatus $276,000
18. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus $276,000 Closed 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    CABOT COVE PATIO VILLA IN DUVAL. Great location for access to recreation and town squares. Tile flooring in the front entrance screened patio area. Inside laundry is always a desirable feature. The kitchen has whitebay cabinets to make it feel large, light and bright. Laminate flooring in living and dining areas. Walk-in closet in master bedroom is incredible with the organized cabinetry. All furnishings and kitchen items are included, unless tagged as does not convey.

19. 2022-01-18
    status Pending 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    CABOT COVE PATIO VILLA IN DUVAL. Great location for access to recreation and town squares. Tile flooring in the front entrance screened patio area. Inside laundry is always a desirable feature. The kitchen has whitebay cabinets to make it feel large, light and bright. Laminate flooring in living and dining areas. Walk-in closet in master bedroom is incredible with the organized cabinetry. All furnishings and kitchen items are included, unless tagged as does not convey.

20. 2022-01-17
    listed $270,000 Active 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    CABOT COVE PATIO VILLA IN DUVAL. Great location for access to recreation and town squares. Tile flooring in the front entrance screened patio area. Inside laundry is always a desirable feature. The kitchen has whitebay cabinets to make it feel large, light and bright. Laminate flooring in living and dining areas. Walk-in closet in master bedroom is incredible with the organized cabinetry. All furnishings and kitchen items are included, unless tagged as does not convey.

21. 2021-12-10
    soldstatus $224,000
22. 2021-12-03
    soldstatus $224,000 Closed 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    CABOT COVE PATIO VILLA IN DUVAL. This property is a great investment home. Home is currently tenant occupied through 7/31/2022. Great location for access to recreation and town squares. Tile flooring in the front entrance screened patio area. Inside laundry is always a desirable feature. The kitchen has whitebay cabinets to make it feel large, light and bright. Laminate flooring in living and dining areas. Walk-in closet in master. Photos are prior to tenant occupancy.

23. 2021-11-02
    status Pending 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    CABOT COVE PATIO VILLA IN DUVAL. This property is a great investment home. Home is currently tenant occupied through 7/31/2022. Great location for access to recreation and town squares. Tile flooring in the front entrance screened patio area. Inside laundry is always a desirable feature. The kitchen has whitebay cabinets to make it feel large, light and bright. Laminate flooring in living and dining areas. Walk-in closet in master. Photos are prior to tenant occupancy.

24. 2021-11-01
    listed $226,900 Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    CABOT COVE PATIO VILLA IN DUVAL. This property is a great investment home. Home is currently tenant occupied through 7/31/2022. Great location for access to recreation and town squares. Tile flooring in the front entrance screened patio area. Inside laundry is always a desirable feature. The kitchen has whitebay cabinets to make it feel large, light and bright. Laminate flooring in living and dining areas. Walk-in closet in master. Photos are prior to tenant occupancy.

25. 2015-08-05
    soldstatus $175,000
26. 2015-07-31
    soldstatus $175,000 Sold
27. 2015-07-09
    status Pending
28. 2015-05-21
    price $179,900
29. 2015-05-15
    listed $184,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,650 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,650 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$3,650
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,519
• − Management: −$2,519
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$7,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,772
• After-tax cash flow: $244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+81.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $276,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-11 Sold (MLS) $276,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-17 Listed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $224,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-03 Sold (MLS) $224,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-01 Listed $226,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-31 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-21 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-15 Listed $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,650 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.