1400 Meredith Ave #40 · Gustine, CA 95322

$38,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 83 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1973 Good condition $53/sqft · at area comps Est $38k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom mobile home offering 720 sq ft of comfortable living space in a 55+ community in Gustine. This home provides easy access and a welcoming setting. Built in 1973, the home has been updated with fresh interior paint, new flooring, a newer water heater, and a recently updated roof. Residents of this friendly senior community enjoy a variety of amenities, including a sparkling pool, game room, BBQ area, and picnic spaceperfect for relaxing or socializing with neighbors. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable home in a peaceful and active community. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1973
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#321 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gustine Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,180 of 1,400 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gustine Elementary (544 students, 81% FRL); Gustine Middle (405 students, 78% FRL); Gustine High (586 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,720 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.57%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $38,403
• List price: $38,000
• Delta: -1.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1400 Meredith Ave #96	0.05mi	1/1.0 (-1)	650 (-10%)	2mo	$35,000	$54	75
1400 Meredith Ave #98	0.05mi	1/1.0 (-1)	791 (+10%)	9mo	$46,000	$58	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $22,414
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $56,346
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95322

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $462	+0% $448	+5% $435	+10% $422
Rent	-10% $377	-5% $413	+0% $448	+5% $484	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $458	base $448	+0.5pp $439	+1.0pp $429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
235 5th St Gustine, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$900	$1.80	0d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $38,000 Pending 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $38,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $38,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $38,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,000 Active 67 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $5,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $4,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom mobile home in a 55+ community offers a good condition with fresh updates and potential for further improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated and could be replaced
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Standard and could be upgraded

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes and increases value
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Standard and could be upgraded	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gustine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616323
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,825
• Composite: 23.99/100
• National rank: #13180
• State rank: #1180 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Gustine

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #10803

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gustine, CA
• Population (ZIP): 9,013

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 30% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65%
• Common ancestry: Russian 14% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Indo-European 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.43%
• Current HPI: 264.2504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B