509 Lincoln St · Kinston, NC 28501

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 207 Days on market

Built 1932 5,227 sqft lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is located in AE flood zone, Structure extends deep into the rear of the lot and is much larger than it looks. Exterior appears to have a synthetic stucco finish. Roof needs repair or replacement. Seller will not turn on utilities but will allow buyer to turn on utilities in their own name for inspections once home is under contract.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1932
• Listed 206 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 3.8% in Kinston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#640 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southeast Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,362 of 1,410 statewide, top 97%, 190 students, 97% FRL); Rochelle Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #462 of 475 statewide, top 98%, 466 students, 98% FRL); Kinston High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #459 of 535 statewide, top 87%, 713 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 65% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.17%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,890
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1014 Lincoln St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-4%)	10mo	$130,000	$84	60
2012 Hwy 258 N	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,456 (-10%)	2mo	$195,000	$134	46
1890 Hwy 258 N	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+3%)	18mo	$175,000	$105	46
1107 E Bright St	0.56mi	3/—	1,395 (-14%)	14mo	$25,000	$18	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-1,344
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $9,324
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28501

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $635/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,001

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $130	+0% $115	+5% $99	+10% $83
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $69	+0% $115	+5% $160	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $129	base $115	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
619 S Heritage St Kinston, NC	1.0–2.0	2.0	1025	$1,042	$1.02	15d	4	0.52mi
1204 Desmond St Kinston, NC	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,340	$1.22	22d	1	0.60mi
100 Wingate Dr Kinston, NC	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	930	$975	$1.05	22d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 207 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 186 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 185 DOM
18. 2026-02-08
    price $55,000
19. 2025-11-26
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $635 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $635 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$635
• − Insurance: −$5,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $843
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$202
• After-tax cash flow: $1,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Kinston

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #640
• US rank: #23267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kinston, NC
• City population: 20,407
• Population (ZIP): 18,112

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.17%
• Current HPI: 193.3213
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $55,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $65,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $635 · +194.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.