8933 Karens Cor · The Homesteads, TX 76009

$78,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2021 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 4-Bedroom 2021 Mobile Home & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; Priced to Sell at $87,500! (LAND IS NOT FOR SALE - MOBILE HOME ONLY) Don & acirc; & euro; & trade; t miss this incredible opportunity to own a beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2021! With 1,387 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home offers modern design, a spacious layout, and affordability all in one. Step inside to an open-concept living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; perfect for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. The kitchen features contemporary finishes and ample storage, while the large pr

Key facts

• Built 2021
• Listed 25 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $934 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $543 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,322 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.98%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,664
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9013 Holly Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-8%)	12mo	$249,000	$185	51
9321 Sallys Way	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,664 (+14%)	3mo	$239,000	$144	45
8800 Dons Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+8%)	6mo	$275,000	$175	42
9505 Thompson Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+8%)	14mo	$210,000	$134	38
9120 Marianna Way	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+8%)	20mo	$195,000	$124	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $46,852
• Equity at exit: $11,705

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $117,799
• Equity at exit: $6,787

Cash invested: $21,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76009

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$412
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,630/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $934

Break-even live

Break-even rent $840

Max offer price $78,500

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $978	-5% $956	+0% $934	+5% $911	+10% $889
Rent	-10% $774	-5% $854	+0% $934	+5% $1,014	+10% $1,093
Rate	-1.0pp $973	-0.5pp $954	base $934	+0.5pp $913	+1.0pp $893

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,625
• Closing costs: $2,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $78,500 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,500 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,500 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,500 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,500 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,500 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,500 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,500 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,500 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,500 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $78,500 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,500 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,500 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,500 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,500 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $78,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,630 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,630 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,630
• − Insurance: −$392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$2,284
• Taxable income: $10,677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,562
• After-tax cash flow: $8,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and improvements, including landscaping, exterior cleaning, and structural inspection, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — The area is overgrown and needs significant trimming and landscaping to improve curb appeal.
• Major Exterior cleaning — The home's exterior appears dirty and in need of a thorough cleaning to improve its appearance.
• Major Structural inspection — The home is a manufactured unit, and a structural inspection is necessary to ensure it is safe and secure.
• Major Landscaping and curb appeal — The area is unkempt and requires significant landscaping to improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the home's resale and rental value by making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Exterior cleaning — Cleaning the exterior will make the home appear more appealing and can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Structural inspection — Ensuring the home is structurally sound is crucial for both resale and rental value, as it ensures the home is safe and secure for potential buyers and renters.
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior, such as painting and replacing outdated fixtures, can significantly enhance the home's value and appeal to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · The area is overgrown and needs significant trimming and landscaping to improve curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior cleaning · The home's exterior appears dirty and in need of a thorough cleaning to improve its appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Structural inspection · The home is a manufactured unit, and a structural inspection is necessary to ensure it is safe and secure.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping and curb appeal · The area is unkempt and requires significant landscaping to improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the home's resale and rental value by making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Exterior cleaning — Cleaning the exterior will make the home appear more appealing and can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Structural inspection — Ensuring the home is structurally sound is crucial for both resale and rental value, as it ensures the home is safe and secure for potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior, such as painting and replacing outdated fixtures, can significantly enhance the home's value and appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Homesteads

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Homesteads, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,803
• Household income: $79,755
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 17% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.74%
• Current HPI: 251.2624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $78,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,630 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.