20505 Queen Alexandra Dr · Groveland, FL 34748

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 625 Days on market

Built 2005 8,197 sqft lot $224/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in a vibrant golf community! This split-plan layout features a spacious eat-in kitchen that overlooks a large great room, making it ideal for entertaining. Enjoy additional living space in the bright Florida room, perfect for relaxation. The oversized corner lot provides plenty of outdoor space, while the screened-in garage offers convenience and comfort. The community amenities are top-notch, with on-site dining, indoor and outdoor pools, tennis courts, pickleball, bocce ball, and shuffleboard—everything you need is just a golf cart rid

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Bright florida room
• Screened-in garage

Tags

• SPLIT-PLAN LAYOUT
• BRIGHT FLORIDA ROOM
• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• SCREENED-IN GARAGE
• RESORT-STYLE LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family residence; Lot size approximately 0.19 acre (approx. 145 x 60); Living area about 1,396 sq ft (public records) / Building area total about 2,063 sq ft; Homestead exemption indicated
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $224); Association approval required; HOA covers 24-hour guard, cable TV, common area taxes, pool, internet, grounds maintenance, management, private road, and recreational facilities; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, park, playground, pool, tennis courts, golf, sidewalks, deed restrictions; golf carts allowed; pets permitted; Association contact listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 20x20 dimensions; Garage door opener
• Security: Gated community (HOA amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Sprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces southeast; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as Balmoral model
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Corner lot; Landscaped yard; City limits location; Paved roads; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Split bedroom floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-180/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Groveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#416 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leesburg Elementary School (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 822 students, 71% FRL); Oak Park Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 575 students, 70% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 798 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 625 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 625 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-40,791
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-59,161
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34748

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 798
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,430/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$224
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,045

Max offer price $207,345

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $44	+0% $-15	+5% $-74	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-95	+0% $-15	+5% $65	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $38	base $-15	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20846 Queen Alexandra Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	25d	1	0.30mi
21721 King Richards Way Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,100	$1.47	18d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $224 · $2,688/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $210,000
3. 2026-03-18
   price $229,900
4. 2026-02-17
   price $234,300
5. 2026-01-22
   price $244,444
6. 2025-12-10
   price $244,500
7. 2025-09-29
   price $244,900
8. 2025-08-01
   price $248,000
9. 2025-07-24
   price $255,000
10. 2025-07-10
    price $256,999
11. 2025-06-05
    price $257,000
12. 2025-04-29
    price $267,000
13. 2025-03-10
    price $269,999
14. 2025-01-10
    price $274,500
15. 2024-09-07
    price $275,000
16. 2024-08-06
    listed $275,557 Active
17. 2024-07-30
    historical
18. 2024-06-25
    price $274,500
19. 2024-05-17
    price $279,500
20. 2024-04-16
    price $289,500
21. 2024-04-04
    listed $299,500 Active
22. 2024-03-28
    historical
23. 2023-10-17
    listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,430 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,430 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,430
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − HOA: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,622
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$869
• After-tax cash flow: $689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Groveland

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #7397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 28,001
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,095
• Household income: $58,192
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1745.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.97%
• Current HPI: 262.1766
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $234,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $244,444 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $244,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $248,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $256,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $257,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $267,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $269,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $274,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Listed $275,557 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $274,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $279,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-16 Price Changed $289,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Listed $299,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-17 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,430 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.