125 W 1st St · San Juan, TX 78589

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

Built 1978 Poor condition 7,000 sqft lot $95/sqft · 10% below area Est $140k · 10% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks! This home has a great location, close to expressway, restaurants and shopping. A spacious home that is ready for your vision and renovation expertise. With solid bones and a generous layout, this property offers the perfect canvas to create substantial value. Ideal for investors, flippers, or ambitious DIY buyers looking to customize every detail. This is your chance to transform a diamond in the rough into a true showstopper. Sold As Is.

Key facts

• Solid bones
• Great location
• Generous layout

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO EXPRESSWAY
• RESTAURANTS AND SHOPPING
• SOLID BONES
• GENEROUS LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,597
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -10.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Zapata St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+5%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	65
409 Liza St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-1%)	14mo	$226,000	$173	62
309 E 1st St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,167 (-12%)	3mo	$185,000	$159	61
408 Zapata St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-1%)	16mo	$219,999	$169	60
410 W Seventh St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+4%)	8mo	$187,000	$136	60
306 W 3rd St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-14%)	10mo	$134,900	$119	57
415 Liza St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+2%)	12mo	$239,900	$178	56
132 E Ciro Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-1%)	7mo	$193,500	$149	55
406 Zapata St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+10%)	8mo	$239,000	$165	53
605 Ebony St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,168 (-12%)	8mo	$72,000	$62	50
406 Liza St	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,490 (+13%)	16mo	$249,999	$168	38
600 Palmetto St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+12%)	12mo	$170,000	$115	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,329
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,160
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $230	+0% $187	+5% $144	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $134	+0% $187	+5% $239	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $219	base $187	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 E Segment Leonel Trevino Rd Unit C San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	962	$1,075	$1.12	44d	1	0.52mi
311 W 8th St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$1,390	$0.76	44d	1	0.56mi
204 E Gomez Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	1.5	1464	$1,650	$1.13	15d	1	0.60mi
300 W Amy Dr Unit C San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$995	$1.04	44d	1	0.66mi
1109 Del Monte Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	989	$1,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.88mi
1400 State Ave San Juan, TX	4.0	3.5	1750	$1,950	$1.11	19d	1	1.07mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,080	$1.03	44d	1	1.08mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,270	$1.22	24d	1	1.08mi
400 Rafael Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,100	$1.14	22d	1	1.08mi
1709 Calle Tulipan San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,750	$0.95	44d	1	1.08mi
1106 Cooper Ln Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	44d	1	1.09mi
217 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	1.09mi
221 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	44d	1	1.10mi
405 Rafael Dr Apt 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	1.11mi
1410 State Ave San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	1.12mi
808 E Evans Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,400	$1.28	44d	1	1.14mi
1306 Adela Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	15d	1	1.20mi
234 W Jaime St San Juan, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	24d	1	1.27mi
418 Chula Vista Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,600	$1.16	44d	1	1.29mi
518 E Kelly Ave Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,300	$0.88	44d	1	1.40mi
913 E 13th St #1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,050	$1.04	44d	1	1.41mi
207 E Garfield St San Juan, TX	4.0	3.0	1818	$1,900	$1.05	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $140,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! This home has a great location, close to expressway, restaurants and shopping. A spacious home that is ready for your vision and renovation expertise. With solid bones and a generous layout, this property offers the perfect canvas to create substantial value. Ideal for investors, flippers, or ambitious DIY buyers looking to customize every detail. This is your chance to transform a diamond in the rough into a true showstopper. Sold As Is.

17. 2026-04-08
    price $145,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! This home has a great location, close to expressway, restaurants and shopping. A spacious home that is ready for your vision and renovation expertise. With solid bones and a generous layout, this property offers the perfect canvas to create substantial value. Ideal for investors, flippers, or ambitious DIY buyers looking to customize every detail. This is your chance to transform a diamond in the rough into a true showstopper. Sold As Is.

18. 2026-03-03
    listed $150,000 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! This home has a great location, close to expressway, restaurants and shopping. A spacious home that is ready for your vision and renovation expertise. With solid bones and a generous layout, this property offers the perfect canvas to create substantial value. Ideal for investors, flippers, or ambitious DIY buyers looking to customize every detail. This is your chance to transform a diamond in the rough into a true showstopper. Sold As Is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,277
• − Management: −$1,277
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$65
• After-tax cash flow: $2,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation and repairs to bring it up to current standards, significantly increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Visible damage and discoloration
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major HVAC system — Outdated and worn
• Major kitchen cabinets — Old and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — Old and dated
• Major landscaping — Dry and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior paint job — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both new roof — Critical for structural integrity and value
• Both HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modernizes and increases value
• Both bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value
• Both landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Visible damage and discoloration	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Outdated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Old and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Old and dated	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Dry and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior paint job — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both new roof — Critical for structural integrity and value ↑
• Both HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $140,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $145,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $150,000 MCALLENMLS