9416 Azure Breeze Ave · Memphis, FL 34221

$332,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $389k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: List price $332,900
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: Spec new construction — Atlanta plan; Active listing
• Construction:
• Exterior features: Property with 1,870 living area

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $333k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $273,543 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $388,960
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3415 70th Ct E	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,784 (-5%)	6mo	$395,000	$221	57
3209 77th Ct E	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+0%)	10mo	$460,000	$245	57
6325 35th Avenue Cir E	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,952 (+4%)	1mo	$406,000	$208	51
3425 70th Gln E	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-11%)	1mo	$415,000	$251	42
6324 35th Avenue Cir E	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,693 (-10%)	11mo	$330,000	$195	39
3212 77th Ct E	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+13%)	14mo	$381,000	$180	35
3303 63rd St E	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (-6%)	17mo	$355,000	$201	35
3212 70th Ct E	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-11%)	16mo	$425,000	$257	35
3409 77th Ct E	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+13%)	12mo	$375,000	$177	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-70,811
• Equity at exit: $49,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-103,923
• Equity at exit: $28,783

Cash invested: $93,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,994/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,912

Max offer price $312,699

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $-25	+0% $-140	+5% $-255	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-356	-5% $-248	+0% $-140	+5% $-32	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-55	base $-140	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,225
• Closing costs: $9,987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,850	$1.29	0d	1	0.02mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,445	$2.48	0d	218	0.02mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$2,044	$1.85	26d	1	0.02mi
6010 33rd Dr E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$2,115	$1.64	5d	1	1.00mi
2789 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	26d	1	1.13mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	23d	1	1.25mi
3303 54th St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	5d	1	1.31mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2110	$1,800	$0.85	0d	1	1.32mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	23d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $332,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $332,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $332,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $332,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $332,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $332,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $332,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,648
• − Property taxes: −$4,994
• − Insurance: −$1,664
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,626
• − Management: −$2,626
• − Depreciation: −$9,684
• Taxable loss: −$7,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,780
• After-tax cash flow: $105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases with exterior painting and interior updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpets with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to clean
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpets with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to clean ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B