3440 N Olive Ave · Crystal River, FL 34428

$189,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1984 0.46 ac lot Est $185k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Short Sale. SHORT SALE! Fully Renovated, Oversized Lot, No HOA, No CDD, RV & Boat Friendly Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home located in the heart of Crystal River, Florida, one of the Nature Coast’s most desirable destinations. Sitting on an oversized lot with no HOA or CDD, this property offers freedom, space, and flexibility—perfect for homeowners, investors, or those seeking a coastal lifestyle. The home has been fully renovated, featuring brand-new flooring throughout and a completely updated kitchen with solid wood cabinetry, sleek granite countertops, and modern finishes, ideal for ever

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• No cdd
• Rv & boat friendly

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• NO HOA
• NO CDD
• RV & BOAT FRIENDLY
• FULLY RENOVATED
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-940/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (7.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.5% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,065/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.86%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,924
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3410 N Bay Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-1%)	6mo	$172,000	$156	85
3900 N Bay Ave #572	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+3%)	6mo	$230,000	$201	64
9665 W Orchard St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,202 (+8%)	12mo	$145,000	$121	58
1361 NW 19th St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+6%)	1mo	$205,000	$174	55
9905 W Cranberry St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (+4%)	17mo	$195,000	$168	53
504 NW Crystal St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (-7%)	7mo	$105,000	$102	42
159 NE 10th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+11%)	11mo	$205,000	$166	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-35,499
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-36,217
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,492/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,164

Max offer price $176,157

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-25	+0% $-78	+5% $-132	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-160	+0% $-78	+5% $3	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-30	base $-78	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3371 N Bay Ave Crystal River, FL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	22d	1	0.10mi
1950 NW 12th Ave Unit B Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	22d	1	0.63mi
10456 W Ashburn Ln Crystal River, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$977	$1.23	15d	1	0.98mi
10785 W Spring Cir Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	22d	1	1.10mi
10906 W Cove Harbor Dr Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1409	$2,950	$2.09	22d	1	1.17mi
373 NW 14th Pl Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1422	$3,000	$2.11	22d	1	1.18mi
10931 W Tidewater Cir Crystal River, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	15d	1	1.28mi
11057 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,495	$1.39	22d	1	1.28mi
11055 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,550	$1.44	22d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   status Active
3. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-20
   price $189,990
5. 2026-02-04
   price $194,990
6. 2025-12-18
   listed $220,990 Active
7. 2025-12-04
   historical
8. 2025-08-01
   price $225,000
9. 2025-08-01
   price $225,000
10. 2025-07-22
    price $227,000
11. 2025-07-22
    price $227,000
12. 2025-06-16
    price $230,000
13. 2025-06-16
    price $230,000
14. 2025-06-04
    listed $235,000 Active
15. 2023-11-01
    soldstatus $217,000
16. 2022-09-09
    soldstatus $132,000
17. 2022-08-31
    soldstatus $132,000 Closed
18. 2022-08-08
    status Pending
19. 2022-08-06
    listed $99,900 Active
20. 1984-11-01
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,492 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,492 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$2,492
• − Insurance: −$6,068
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,982
• − Management: −$1,982
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$939
• After-tax cash flow: $0/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+304.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $189,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $194,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Listed $220,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $225,000 RACC
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $227,000 RACC
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $227,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $230,000 RACC
• 2025-06-04 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $217,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-31 Sold (MLS) $132,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-06 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,492 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.