4720 Burney Dr · Elfers, FL 34690

$158,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1981 5,401 sqft lot Est $139k · 14% over $143/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare find, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with many upgrades, newer laminate floors throughout the home. Thermal sash windows, vinyl siding, new roof over 2016, finished enclosed Florida room with Lake view - Also features extra, large shed with workshop. Oh inside laundry too.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Corner-lot
• Spacious sunroom

Tags

• CORNER-LOT
• FULLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS SUNROOM
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• LOW HOA FEE
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total annual fees $1,716
• HOA & community: Located in Tanglewood Mobile Home / Tracy association; Monthly HOA $143; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, shuffleboard court, grounds maintenance, and trash; Buyer approval required; Senior community with breed-restricted pets allowed; Association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Roof over; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio/porch; Sidewalk; Exterior storage; In-ground pool; Pond view; Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.7% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $158k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,392
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3217 Brewster Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	2mo	$96,500	$84	91
4720 Burney Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,065 (-8%)	1mo	$135,000	$127	87
3131 Bixler Ct	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (+2%)	3mo	$143,000	$121	84
3230 Brewster Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+9%)	3mo	$118,000	$94	73
3414 Chatford Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	12mo	$85,000	$80	60
3035 Buckner Ct	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	18mo	$193,000	$183	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,766
• Equity at exit: $23,633

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,388
• Equity at exit: $13,704

Cash invested: $44,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$831
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,828/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $158,500

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,625
• Closing costs: $4,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.23mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	4d	1	0.34mi
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	4d	1	0.42mi
3336 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.52mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	24d	1	0.52mi
3301 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	17d	1	0.53mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	4d	1	0.56mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.57mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	4d	1	0.62mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	1d	1	0.64mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,633	$1.59	2d	13	0.65mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	4d	1	0.65mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	24d	1	0.66mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	17d	1	0.73mi
3847 Lighthouse Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,595	$1.39	21d	1	0.73mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	24d	1	0.78mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	4d	1	0.83mi
4301 Straits Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.5	1284	$1,790	$1.39	24d	1	0.83mi
4022 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	17d	1	0.85mi
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	24d	1	0.86mi
4031 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	17d	1	0.86mi
4133 Grayton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,727	$1.62	4d	1	0.89mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	14d	1	0.90mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	24d	1	0.90mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	24d	1	0.90mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	3d	1	0.92mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	14d	1	0.92mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	4d	1	0.92mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	24d	1	0.92mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	24d	1	0.97mi
5020 Vickers Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	863	$1,550	$1.80	4d	1	0.98mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	14d	1	0.99mi
3516 Sheryl Hill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	848	$1,595	$1.88	24d	1	1.00mi
4117 Highland Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,599	$1.16	12d	1	1.03mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	24d	1	1.05mi
4221 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	888	$1,300	$1.46	23d	1	1.07mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	24d	1	1.08mi
3637 Winder Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	4d	1	1.09mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	4d	1	1.12mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	24d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   price $158,500
3. 2026-04-27
   status Active
4. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-02
   price $165,000
6. 2026-03-01
   status Active
7. 2026-02-28
   historical
8. 2026-02-05
   price $169,000
9. 2025-11-15
   listed $175,000 Active
10. 2019-05-13
    soldstatus $78,000 Sold 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    A rare find, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with many upgrades, newer laminate floors throughout the home. Thermal sash windows, vinyl siding, new roof over 2016, finished enclosed Florida room with Lake view - Also features extra, large shed with workshop. Oh inside laundry too.

11. 2019-05-13
    soldstatus $78,000

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    A rare find, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with many upgrades, newer laminate floors throughout the home. Thermal sash windows, vinyl siding, new roof over 2016, finished enclosed Florida room with Lake view - Also features extra, large shed with workshop. Oh inside laundry too.

12. 2019-03-15
    status Pending 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    A rare find, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with many upgrades, newer laminate floors throughout the home. Thermal sash windows, vinyl siding, new roof over 2016, finished enclosed Florida room with Lake view - Also features extra, large shed with workshop. Oh inside laundry too.

13. 2019-03-12
    listed $79,500 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    A rare find, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with many upgrades, newer laminate floors throughout the home. Thermal sash windows, vinyl siding, new roof over 2016, finished enclosed Florida room with Lake view - Also features extra, large shed with workshop. Oh inside laundry too.

14. 2011-03-18
    soldstatus $63,000
15. 2011-03-01
    soldstatus $63,000 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Many upgrades in this waterview 1 owner, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home, freshly painted throughout, inside laundry, water filtration system in kitchen. Thermal sash windows, vinyl siding, extra large attached storage shed, finished enclosed porchwith window a/c. Must see to appreciate. Owner financing Possible.

16. 2011-01-24
    listed $68,900 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Many upgrades in this waterview 1 owner, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home, freshly painted throughout, inside laundry, water filtration system in kitchen. Thermal sash windows, vinyl siding, extra large attached storage shed, finished enclosed porchwith window a/c. Must see to appreciate. Owner financing Possible.

17. 1981-06-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,828
• − Insurance: −$792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$4,611
• Taxable income: $210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$50
• After-tax cash flow: $2,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2164.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $158,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-13 Sold (MLS) $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-12 Listed $79,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-01 Sold (MLS) $63,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-24 Listed $68,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,828 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.