1804 Bay St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1874 7,405 sqft lot Est $91k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 1½-story home with approx. 1,300 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Situated on a 0.17-acre lot (61x120) in the City of Saginaw. Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor - bring your vision and make it your own! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1874

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Other water source
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.17 acres (61.5 x 120)

Interior

• Bedrooms: One and one-half level layout (includes upper half story bedroom area)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $866k (91%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $90k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1874 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1874 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.55%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2844 Schemm St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,336 (+4%)	3mo	$40,000	$30	81
2408 State St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,362 (+6%)	1mo	$40,000	$29	77
251 Trier St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,262 (-2%)	2mo	$147,000	$116	64
1819 Delaware St	0.59mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,334 (+4%)	3mo	$93,000	$70	59
623 N Woodbridge St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,217 (-6%)	1mo	$42,500	$35	56
1920 W Genesee St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,391 (+8%)	3mo	$53,500	$38	54
1724 State St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-11%)	2mo	$75,000	$66	52
1407 Bay St	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,464 (+14%)	2mo	$142,900	$98	52
278 Wylie St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,411 (+10%)	4mo	$148,000	$105	46
250 Goetz St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-13%)	4mo	$79,900	$71	46
266 Lockwood St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+12%)	3mo	$150,000	$104	43
2512 WITTERS St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,095 (-15%)	3mo	$109,900	$100	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $4,742
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $32,476
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,631/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $816

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4156 Ann St Saginaw, MI	4.0	1.5	1387	$1,225	$0.88	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $89,900 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,600 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,600 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,600 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,600 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,600 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,600 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,600 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,600 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-02-24
    price $95,600 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 1½-story home with approx. 1,300 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Situated on a 0.17-acre lot (61x120) in the City of Saginaw. Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor - bring your vision and make it your own! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes.

18. 2026-02-24
    price $95,600

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 1½-story home with approx. 1,300 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Situated on a 0.17-acre lot (61x120) in the City of Saginaw. Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor - bring your vision and make it your own! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes.

19. 2026-02-23
    listed $956,000 Active 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 1½-story home with approx. 1,300 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Situated on a 0.17-acre lot (61x120) in the City of Saginaw. Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor - bring your vision and make it your own! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes.

20. 2026-02-23
    listed $956,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 1½-story home with approx. 1,300 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Situated on a 0.17-acre lot (61x120) in the City of Saginaw. Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor - bring your vision and make it your own! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes.

21. 2022-08-19
    soldstatus $46,000 Sold 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Make this home yours today! Enjoy upgrades such as fresh paint, recessed lighting, new flooring, remodeled bathroom and kitchen, and more. Call an agent to schedule your showing today! Please wear a mask inside. Home is not cleaned between appointments. Follow COVID Guidelines. Seller will make FHA repairs if needed.

22. 2022-08-19
    soldstatus $46,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Make this home yours today! Enjoy upgrades such as fresh paint, recessed lighting, new flooring, remodeled bathroom and kitchen, and more. Call an agent to schedule your showing today! Please wear a mask inside. Home is not cleaned between appointments. Follow COVID Guidelines. Seller will make FHA repairs if needed.

23. 2022-08-03
    status Pending 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Make this home yours today! Enjoy upgrades such as fresh paint, recessed lighting, new flooring, remodeled bathroom and kitchen, and more. Call an agent to schedule your showing today! Please wear a mask inside. Home is not cleaned between appointments. Follow COVID Guidelines. Seller will make FHA repairs if needed.

24. 2022-08-03
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Make this home yours today! Enjoy upgrades such as fresh paint, recessed lighting, new flooring, remodeled bathroom and kitchen, and more. Call an agent to schedule your showing today! Please wear a mask inside. Home is not cleaned between appointments. Follow COVID Guidelines. Seller will make FHA repairs if needed.

25. 2022-07-31
    listed $54,900 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Make this home yours today! Enjoy upgrades such as fresh paint, recessed lighting, new flooring, remodeled bathroom and kitchen, and more. Call an agent to schedule your showing today! Please wear a mask inside. Home is not cleaned between appointments. Follow COVID Guidelines. Seller will make FHA repairs if needed.

26. 2022-07-31
    listed $54,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Make this home yours today! Enjoy upgrades such as fresh paint, recessed lighting, new flooring, remodeled bathroom and kitchen, and more. Call an agent to schedule your showing today! Please wear a mask inside. Home is not cleaned between appointments. Follow COVID Guidelines. Seller will make FHA repairs if needed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,631
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,129
• − Management: −$1,129
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$510
• After-tax cash flow: $2,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+74.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $95,600 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $95,600 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-23 Listed $956,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-23 Listed $956,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) $46,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) $46,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-08-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-08-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-31 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-31 Listed $54,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,631 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.