6950 Sterling Meadow Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$298,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2003 6,873 sqft lot $104/sqft · at area comps Est $307k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Key facts

• 6,873 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosures: Municipal Utility District disclosure and seller disclosure
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual association fee of $598; Community features include gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road surface
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2003
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fully fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); HVAC energy-efficient features
• Interior features: Double vanity; Separate shower; Ceiling fans; Gas log and wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress Springs H S (math 35% / reading 60%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,788 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 43% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 762 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12317% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,489 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,497
• List price: $298,000
• Delta: -3.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6950 Sterling Meadow Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,852 (0%)	0mo	$298,000	$104	100
6914 Crystal Point Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	3,083 (+8%)	5mo	$319,000	$103	77
19835 River Rock Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,844 (-0%)	7mo	$307,000	$108	71
6810 Enchanted Crest Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,434 (-15%)	3mo	$264,900	$109	65
7427 Oakwood Canyon Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,810 (-2%)	10mo	$315,000	$112	64
19807 Creekshore Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,644 (-7%)	8mo	$315,000	$119	60
19923 Arbor Creek Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	3,240 (+14%)	5mo	$290,000	$90	59
6607 Portlick Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,682 (-6%)	9mo	$298,000	$111	50
19514 Azalea Valley Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,464 (-14%)	6mo	$284,990	$116	49
6759 Barker Bend Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,564 (-10%)	11mo	$289,000	$113	48
20703 Blanton Brook Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,114 (+9%)	6mo	$325,000	$104	43
20506 Fairworth Place Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,467 (-14%)	4mo	$229,900	$93	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,117
• Equity at exit: $68,079

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-81,486
• Equity at exit: $68,253

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 762
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$622 /mo · $7,465/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,986

Max offer price $240,489

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-241	+0% $-326	+5% $-410	+10% $-494
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-427	+0% $-326	+5% $-224	+10% $-122
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-250	base $-326	+0.5pp $-403	+1.0pp $-481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19815 Blushdawn Sierra Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2590	$2,050	$0.79	25d	1	0.52mi
6642 High Stone Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$1,999	$0.96	44d	1	0.53mi
6610 Gorton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2481	$750	$0.30	4d	1	0.60mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$3,258	$1.83	0d	41	0.96mi
7830 Ashland Springs Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2352	$1,974	$0.84	21d	1	1.03mi
21034 Shore Oak Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2110	$2,950	$1.40	44d	1	1.04mi
21031 Sandestin Ridge Dr Cypress, TX	5.0	3.5	2099	$2,861	$1.36	44d	1	1.08mi
7818 Yaupon Ranch Ct Cypress, TX	5.0	2.5	2774	$2,215	$0.80	45d	1	1.12mi
20730 Dickinson Manor Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	2.5	2710	$2,350	$0.87	3d	1	1.16mi
19758 Crossfalls Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2156	$2,070	$0.96	45d	1	1.18mi
7876 Galleon Field Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	3.5	3059	$2,366	$0.77	0d	1	1.18mi
21010 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,768	$1.28	44d	1	1.21mi
21047 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	3.0	2461	$2,953	$1.20	44d	1	1.25mi
21014 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,953	$1.19	44d	1	1.25mi
21046 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$3,045	$1.22	44d	1	1.25mi
21034 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	3.0	2461	$2,861	$1.16	44d	1	1.27mi
21114 Montego Bay Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,499	$1.18	44d	1	1.30mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,622	$1.35	13d	21	1.31mi
7546 Coral Terrace Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2050	$2,699	$1.32	44d	1	1.40mi
7636 Cocobola Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	2.5	2775	$3,000	$1.08	44d	1	1.47mi
21415 Bluebonnet Cove Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2514	$3,000	$1.19	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 938-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $2,400
3. 2026-05-06
   listed $298,000 Active 938-char remark
4. 2019-02-05
   soldstatus
5. 2007-07-23
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,465 · $622/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,465 · $622/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$7,465
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$8,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Rental Removed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $2,400 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $298,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,465 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.