15 Hillcrest Ave · Caribou, ME 04736

$79,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1947 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two (2) bedroom units, live in one and rent the other to pay the mortgage or simply has as two rents.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.6% in Caribou — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#46 in ME, #4,849 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• RSU 39 (town): math 82% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #79 of 112 in ME (top 70%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Aroostook County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Aroostook County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.22%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,310
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Park St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,176 (+0%)	3mo	$168,000	$143	70
10 Laurette Cir	0.26mi	4/1.0	1,248 (+7%)	6mo	$178,400	$143	67
27 Hillcrest Ave	0.06mi	4/1.0	1,036 (-12%)	15mo	$118,500	$114	62
33 Elmwood Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,272 (+9%)	3mo	$174,900	$138	58
7 Liberty St	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,078 (-8%)	14mo	$165,000	$153	57
11 Violette St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,196 (+2%)	6mo	$206,000	$172	55
39 Park St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+11%)	9mo	$120,000	$93	53
44 Garden Cir	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (+11%)	3mo	$185,000	$143	52
80 Garden Cir	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-7%)	10mo	$205,000	$188	50
30 Westwind Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-8%)	23mo	$143,500	$133	40
41 Country Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-10%)	20mo	$174,900	$166	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $3,978
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $25,365
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04736

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,631/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $745

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $288	+0% $265	+5% $243	+10% $220
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $222	+0% $265	+5% $308	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $305	-0.5pp $285	base $265	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $79,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
10. 2026-03-04
    status Active
11. 2026-02-19
    status Pending
12. 2026-01-27
    listed $79,900 Active
13. 2024-03-14
    price $3,650,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,631
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$494
• After-tax cash flow: $2,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 39
• NCES district ID: 2314794
• Math proficiency: 82% ▲ 55.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 39.00%
• Median HH income: $38,159
• Composite: 68.6/100
• National rank: #341
• State rank: #79 of 112 in ME

Livability — Caribou

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #4849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caribou, ME
• City population: 9,107
• Population (ZIP): 9,107

Population outlook (Aroostook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,905 people
• By 2030: 57,815 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 49,240 · -20.5%
• By 2050: 41,386 · -33.1%
• By 2075: 27,664 · -55.3%
• By 2100: 18,974 · -69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 28% Slovak 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Aroostook

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.2% · R 62.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.8pp toward R · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+17.3 2012: D+7.7 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.06%
• Current HPI: 219.5142
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-97.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — MREIS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — MREIS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — MREIS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $79,900 MREIS
• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $3,650,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,631 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.