Lot 10 Willow Creek Homesites Way · Chester, CA 96020

$92,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1930 Fair condition 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Look for the charming tree cutouts on the green shutters—a delightful touch that hints at the character and rustic appeal found throughout this unique mountain retreat. Nestled along Willow Creek in the secluded, off-the-grid Willow Creek Homesites, this seasonal cabin offers a peaceful escape surrounded by the beauty of the Plumas National Forest. Located approximately 8–9 miles from Chester, the property enjoys a picturesque forest setting where the soothing sounds of Willow Creek create the perfect backdrop for relaxation and outdoor enjoyment. The cabin features a spacious open-beam/rafters great room and creekside views, allowing nature to become part of the living experien

Key facts

• Mountain retreat
• Creekside views
• Loft

Tags

• MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• PICTURESQUE FOREST SETTING
• CREEKSIDE VIEWS
• STONE FIREPLACE
• RUSTIC FINISHES
• LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Willow Creek Summer Home subdivision
• HOA & community: Association amenities (unspecified)

Exterior

• Parking: Other/unpaved parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane; Phone connected; Cable not available; Phone service not available in some areas; Other utility services
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Log, stone, and wood siding construction; Metal roof; Slab and stone foundation; Built on 0.39 acres
• Exterior features: Deck; Wooded lot; Steep, sloped terrain; Waterfront frontage (river); Has views

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Flooring: Hardwood; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Other heating type; No cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Beamed ceilings; Masonry fireplace; Basement (has)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#581 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C. Roy Carmichael Elementary (346 students, 72% FRL); Quincy Junior/Senior High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($636 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,620 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,083
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
251 Myrtle St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+6%)	8mo	$225,000	$208	71
336 First Avenue Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	972 (-5%)	10mo	$215,000	$221	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $58,693
• Equity at exit: $82,881

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.45×
• Total profit: $166,129
• Equity at exit: $178,736

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96020

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $166	+0% $135	+5% $103	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $96	+0% $135	+5% $173	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $158	base $135	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $92,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $92,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $92,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 687-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $92,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $160
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38
• After-tax cash flow: $1,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This cabin requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen, bathroom, and HVAC system, and repair the exterior. With these updates, it could significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major HVAC unit — likely outdated and inefficient
• Moderate exterior siding — some wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase its appeal
• Both replace HVAC unit — improving energy efficiency and comfort
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would enhance the home's overall appeal
• Both repair and paint exterior — improving the home's curb appeal would attract more buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC unit · likely outdated and inefficient	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · some wear and tear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$48,000–165,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase its appeal ↑
• Both replace HVAC unit — improving energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would enhance the home's overall appeal ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior — improving the home's curb appeal would attract more buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — Chester

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #18928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chester, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,404

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.21%
• Current HPI: 142.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $92,000 PAR