620 Valley Crest Dr · Birmingham, AL 35215

$89,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,088 sqft · Condo public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1981 $83/sqft · at area comps Est $86k · at est. $23/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ivestors!!! Investors!!! Investors!!!Check out this newly listed 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo—an excellent opportunity for both seasoned and first-time investors. Expand your portfolio with an affordable property priced under $100K. Whether you’re looking for your next investment or getting started in real estate, this condo is worth a look. Contact me today for any questions.

Key facts

• $23 HOA
• Built 1981
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $90k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.25%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,758
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 4.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $9,874
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $40,240
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $768

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
656 Valley Crest Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,350	$1.24	2d	1	0.00mi
660 Valley Crest Dr Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,139	$1.20	2d	9	0.15mi
40 Sunscape Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,555	$1.21	2d	1	0.78mi
5 1st St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1020	$900	$0.88	44d	1	1.25mi
848 Old Trail Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	930	$925	$0.99	24d	1	1.31mi
241 Mamie Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,495	$1.20	3d	1	1.41mi
316 Pine St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,100	$0.89	44d	1	1.47mi
252 Meadowdale Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	920	$995	$1.08	44d	1	1.48mi
217 Killough Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,200	$0.99	15d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $89,900 Active 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Ivestors!!! Investors!!! Investors!!!Check out this newly listed 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo—an excellent opportunity for both seasoned and first-time investors. Expand your portfolio with an affordable property priced under $100K. Whether you’re looking for your next investment or getting started in real estate, this condo is worth a look. Contact me today for any questions.

15. 2022-01-05
    soldstatus $57,000
16. 2015-01-12
    soldstatus $41,500
17. 2014-02-28
    soldstatus $16,000
18. 2009-01-15
    soldstatus $61,500
19. 1995-10-01
    soldstatus $49,500
20. 1981-09-01
    soldstatus $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $3,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $3,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+87.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $89,900 WAMLS
• 2022-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 2014-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 1995-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 1981-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.