16659 Natchez Trace Rd · Lexington, TN 38351

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready Home on 1.125 Acres & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; Modern Comfort Meets Peaceful Living! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, just 5 years old and sitting on a spacious 1.125-acre lot. Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience, this property is ideal for those looking for a quiet setting with modern features. Step inside to a thoughtfully designed layout with plenty of natural light and functional living space. The kitchen comes fully equipped with new stainless steel appliances, including a refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Outside, you &

Key facts

• 1.125 acres
• Newly built shed
• Paved driveway

Tags

• 1.125 ACRES
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• NEWLY BUILT SHED
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.7% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#96 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Henderson County (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #41 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,251 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.36%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,372
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $11,120
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38351

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $240	+0% $206	+5% $172	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $161	+0% $206	+5% $252	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $237	base $206	+0.5pp $175	+1.0pp $143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $300 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 184.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$121
• After-tax cash flow: $2,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County
• NCES district ID: 4701800
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,119
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7114
• State rank: #41 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #10272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,958
• Population (ZIP): 17,958

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,057 people
• By 2030: 27,730 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 26,664 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,081 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 20,747 · -26.1%
• By 2100: 15,603 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.8% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.9pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+42.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.82%
• Current HPI: 297.0387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $120,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+22.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $300 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.