Is 254 Quail Run Way Way SE in Allenhurst, GA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.6% cap rate and $-381/mo modeled cash flow at a $272,875 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 254 Quail Run Way Way SE?

The modeled cap rate is 4.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,948/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 37.5

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +8.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.2/30.0
Appreciation +5.1/10.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Schools +2.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
DSCR +1.3/10.0

$272,875

254 Quail Run Way Way SE · Allenhurst, GA 31301

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.70 ac lot Garage $179/sqft · at area comps Est $279k · at est. $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Presenting the Powell Plan! Suitable for everyone, the Powell showcases a ranch-style design featuring three bedrooms and two bathrooms. The open kitchen, equipped with a large corner pantry and an expansive island, flows effortlessly into the dining room and great room, creating the perfect open atmosphere. The two secondary bedrooms offer plenty of closet space and share a luxurious three-piece hall bath conveniently located near the front of the home. The primary suite boasts a private en-suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Artistic renderings are for informational purposes only, and actual floor plans and features may differ.

Key facts

Expansive island
Dining room
Ranch-style design

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (20.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (28.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $195k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $424 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,783 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.62%
Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
DSCR: 0.73
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $279,346
List price: $272,875
Delta: -2.32%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
663 Buckhead Loop SE	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+2%)	2mo	$276,975	$177	81
337 Buckhead Loop SE	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,527 (0%)	5mo	$282,705	$185	80
1007 Buckhead Loop SE	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+2%)	8mo	$289,210	$185	80
1118 Buckhead Loop SE	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+2%)	8mo	$275,650	$176	77
709 Buckhead Loop SE	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-10%)	1mo	$282,125	$204	76
722 Buckhead Loop SE	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,609 (+5%)	2mo	$279,800	$174	75
393 Buckhead Loop SE	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+2%)	2mo	$280,500	$179	74
1948 SE Arnold Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-10%)	2mo	$276,000	$200	70
265 Antler Ave SE	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-10%)	8mo	$259,945	$188	69
308 Buckhead Loop SE	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,380 (-10%)	5mo	$261,375	$189	63
1611 Arnall Dr Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-10%)	5mo	$278,000	$201	59
358 Buckhead Loop SE	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,735 (+14%)	4mo	$301,090	$174	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -8.4%
Equity multiple: 0.60×
Total profit: $-30,198
Equity at exit: $81,361

10-year hold

IRR: -2.3%
Equity multiple: 0.75×
Total profit: $-19,266
Equity at exit: $99,514

Cash invested: $76,405 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 29 active · 12 under contract
Months of supply: 14.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $272,875 ($178/sqft)
Median days on market: 71 d
This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +3.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31301

Home prices YoY: 0.1%
Active inventory: 173
Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,948 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,431
Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,093/yr
Insurance: −$114
HOA: −$34
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
Net cashflow: $-381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $217,745

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-192	-5% $-287	+0% $-381	+5% $-475	+10% $-570
Rent	-10% $-535	-5% $-458	+0% $-381	+5% $-304	+10% $-227
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-312	base $-381	+0.5pp $-452	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $68,219
Closing costs: $8,186
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
469 Archie Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2001	$2,000	$1.00	93d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $34 monthly fee

Exterior

Parking: Attached garageDriveway2 covered parking spaces (2 total spaces, 2 garage spaces)
Utilities: Electricity connected (electric on property)Underground utilitiesSeptic tank
Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyOne storyUnder construction
Construction: Vinyl sidingShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction (under construction)
Exterior features: Landscaped lotPaved road accessIrrigation equipmentOther exterior features

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Breakfast barEntrance foyerKitchen islandPantry
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $272,875 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $272,875 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $272,875 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $272,875 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $272,875 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $272,875 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $272,875 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $272,875 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $272,875 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $272,875 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $272,875 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $272,875 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $272,875 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $272,875 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $272,875 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $272,875 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $272,875 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $272,875 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $272,875 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $272,875 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $272,875 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $272,875 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $272,875 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $272,875 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $272,875 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $272,875 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $272,875 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $272,875 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $272,875 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $272,875 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $272,875 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $272,875 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $272,875 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $272,875 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $272,875 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $272,875 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $272,875 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $272,875 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $272,875 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $272,875 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-19

days on market $272,875 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $272,875 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $272,875 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $272,875 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $272,875 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $272,875 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $272,875 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $272,875 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $272,875 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $272,875 Active 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,374
− Mortgage interest: −$15,285
− Property taxes: −$4,093
− Insurance: −$1,364
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
− Management: −$1,870
− HOA: −$408
− Depreciation: −$7,938
Taxable loss: −$9,455

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,269
After-tax cash flow: $-2,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
Both New flooring — Can improve the look and feel of the home ↑
Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers/renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Long County
NCES district ID: 1303360
Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
Median HH income: $45,958
Composite: 22.51/100
National rank: #8090
State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Allenhurst

Score: 62/100
State rank: #319
US rank: #17124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Liberty County · 24,669 people
Metro: Hinesville, GA
Population (ZIP): 4,933
Household income: $65,417
Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 24,669 people
By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
Current HPI: 187.7716
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Hinesville, GA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
#203 WestRock Atlanta $19.3B #346 Graphic Packaging Holding Atlanta $9.4B
Retail	1	$160B
#24 Home Depot Atlanta $159.5B
Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
#47 United Parcel Service Atlanta $91.1B
Airlines	1	$62B
#70 Delta Air Lines Atlanta $61.6B
Consumer Goods	1	$47B
#97 Coca-Cola Atlanta $47.1B
Utilities	1	$25B
#147 Southern Company Atlanta $24.9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-22 Listed $272,875 HABR

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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