Timms Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$213,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Listed 75 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $213,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,540.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2406 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $201,159 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,540
• List price: $213,999
• Delta: -17.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Evening Dusk Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,515 (+1%)	3mo	$270,000	$178	78
576 Avre Loop	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-3%)	2mo	$209,490	$144	76
142 Haw Branch Vw	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-5%)	2mo	$229,990	$161	74
428 Sormonne Loop	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-3%)	2mo	$212,999	$147	72
438 Sormonne Loop	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-5%)	2mo	$209,999	$147	67
460 Sormonne Loop	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-5%)	3mo	$214,999	$151	65
111 Jura Pass	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-8%)	1mo	$203,999	$148	65
220 Sambre St	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-5%)	2mo	$239,490	$168	64
184 Meuse Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-5%)	4mo	$219,999	$154	63
130 Sunshine Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,710 (+14%)	2mo	$285,000	$167	62
301 Blue Springs Pass	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,453 (-3%)	2mo	$249,900	$172	62
230 Crystal River Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+7%)	2mo	$267,000	$166	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-65,836
• Equity at exit: $40,338

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-101,034
• Equity at exit: $23,391

Cash invested: $75,751 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $227,999 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 38 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2406
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,058/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,367

Max offer price $234,133

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-158	+0% $-252	+5% $-345	+10% $-439
Rent	-10% $-413	-5% $-333	+0% $-252	+5% $-171	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-183	base $-252	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,635
• Closing costs: $8,116
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	139d	1	0.15mi
303 Alamito Ave Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,000	$1.22	56d	1	0.17mi
271 Alamito Ave Kyle, TX	4.0	3.5	1923	$2,100	$1.09	110d	1	0.18mi
572 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,695	$1.18	9d	1	0.21mi
591 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,095	$1.07	63d	1	0.24mi
172 Rodney Boat RD Niederwald, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,300	$1.12	108d	1	0.25mi
127 Jura Pass Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	9d	1	0.32mi
446 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,699	$1.38	42d	1	0.33mi
1689 Woodlands Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$1,850	$1.22	139d	1	0.34mi
149 Red Sun Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,850	$1.30	106d	1	0.36mi
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	119d	1	0.39mi
240 Sambre St Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,625	$1.35	88d	1	0.40mi
224 Blooming Trl Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,995	$1.34	9d	1	0.40mi
224 Blooming Trl Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,100	$1.39	88d	1	0.40mi
343 Silver Glen Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1913	$1,895	$0.99	139d	1	0.41mi
147 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,850	$1.14	108d	1	0.44mi
586 Evening Star Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,100	$1.14	6d	1	0.46mi
183 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2031	$2,250	$1.11	67d	1	0.46mi
283 Silver glen Dr Unit 1 Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,800	$1.04	88d	1	0.47mi
290 Silver Glen Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2085	$2,199	$1.05	42d	1	0.47mi
290 Silver Glen Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2085	$2,199	$1.05	9d	1	0.47mi
149 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1896	$1,950	$1.03	119d	1	0.48mi
148 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,800	$1.11	139d	1	0.50mi
702 Silver Springs Bnd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2017	$2,150	$1.07	42d	1	0.50mi
241 Seabreeze St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,250	$1.09	9d	1	0.52mi
195 Salt Springs Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	113d	1	0.56mi
1441 Star Mdw Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,900	$1.18	94d	1	0.57mi
160 Night Sky Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	100d	1	0.59mi
366 Silver Springs Bnd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,145	$1.12	99d	1	0.62mi
355 Evening Star Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	28d	1	0.68mi
199 Prairie Dawn Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2136	$1,850	$0.87	4d	1	0.72mi
1155 Star Mdw Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1992	$2,150	$1.08	64d	1	0.74mi
310 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	100d	1	0.85mi
111 Cermeno Cv Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1660	$1,675	$1.01	3d	1	1.00mi
105 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,100	$1.24	63d	1	1.06mi
105 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,995	$1.18	9d	1	1.06mi
164 Cinnabar Ln #1 Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,750	$1.02	42d	1	1.13mi
164 Cinnabar Ln #4 Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1479	$1,699	$1.15	9d	1	1.13mi
131 Connor Elkins Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2015	$1,950	$0.97	88d	1	1.14mi
213 Connor Elkins Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,950	$1.16	74d	1	1.15mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $230,999

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan named "Timms"Single-family plan (inventory type: Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,500 living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $213,999 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $218,999 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $218,999 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $218,999 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $218,999 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $218,999 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $218,999 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $218,999 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $218,999 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $218,999 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $218,999 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $218,999 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $223,999 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $223,999 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $223,999 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $223,999 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $227,999 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $227,999 Active 51 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $227,999 Active 50 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $227,999 Active 49 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    pricedays on market $227,999 Active 48 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $230,999 Active 46 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $230,999 Active 45 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $230,999 Active 44 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $230,999 Active 43 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $230,999 Active 42 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $230,999 Active 41 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $230,999 Active 40 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $230,999 Active 39 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $230,999 Active 38 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $230,999 Active 37 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $230,999 Active 36 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $230,999 Active 35 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $230,999 Active 34 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $230,999 Active 32 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $230,999 Active 31 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $230,999 Active 30 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $230,999 Active 29 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $230,999 Active 27 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $230,999 Active 26 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $230,999 Active 25 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $230,999 Active 24 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $230,999 Active 21 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $230,999 Active 19 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $230,999 Active 18 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $230,999 Active 16 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $230,999 Active 14 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $230,999 Active 13 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $230,999 Active 12 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $230,999 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,154
• − Property taxes: −$4,058
• − Insurance: −$1,353
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − Depreciation: −$7,870
• Taxable loss: −$7,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,870
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Kyle, TX, is part of the Stonehill Collection at Waterstone, featuring new construction with no visible signs of wear or damage. It is move-in ready and offers excellent curb appeal and amenities.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blanco Vista El F TX #1,744/4,322 Nat'l #21,283/41,679 Middle Laura B Wallace Middle F TX #947/1,662 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $230,999

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan named "Timms"Single-family plan (inventory type: Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,500 living area)