220 County Road 21 · Barryville, NY 12719

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 804 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 1958 Good condition 0.86 ac lot $248/sqft · 35% below area Est $304k · 35% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow—this is a find! Move right into this beautiful 2-bedroom ranch set on a .86-acre property. Featuring a new kitchen with quartz counters and new stainless appliances, gleaming hardwood floors, and a newly tiled bathroom, this home also offers a semi-finished basement with laminate flooring. The layout feels spacious and open, making it perfect for entertaining both indoors and out. Available immediately!

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• New kitchen
• Newly tiled bathroom

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEWLY TILED BATHROOM
• SEMI-FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.3% in Barryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $187,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,222
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -34.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $124,821
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $354,736
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12719

• Home prices YoY: 23.8%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $199,000 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Wow—this is a find! Move right into this beautiful 2-bedroom ranch set on a .86-acre property. Featuring a new kitchen with quartz counters and new stainless appliances, gleaming hardwood floors, and a newly tiled bathroom, this home also offers a semi-finished basement with laminate flooring. The layout feels spacious and open, making it perfect for entertaining both indoors and out. Available immediately!

16. 2026-04-01
    listed $219,000 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Wow—this is a find! Move right into this beautiful 2-bedroom ranch set on a .86-acre property. Featuring a new kitchen with quartz counters and new stainless appliances, gleaming hardwood floors, and a newly tiled bathroom, this home also offers a semi-finished basement with laminate flooring. The layout feels spacious and open, making it perfect for entertaining both indoors and out. Available immediately!

17. 2026-03-16
    price $219,000
18. 2026-01-30
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$81
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20
• After-tax cash flow: $3,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom ranch is move-in ready with a new kitchen and bathroom, and offers a semi-finished basement. The property is well-maintained and has a good condition score.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improve curb appeal and attract buyers
• Both fence — secure property and enhance privacy

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improve curb appeal and attract buyers ↑
• Both fence — secure property and enhance privacy ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Barryville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barryville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 892

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.83%
• Current HPI: 405.292
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $219,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $219,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid