27 Wilson Ave · Niles, OH 44446

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1917 6,899 sqft lot $32/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home featuring a rear fenced yard and enclosed front and rear porches. Call today for your private tour.

Key facts

• Rear fenced yard
• 6,899 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• REAR FENCED YARD
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCHES
• ENCLOSED REAR PORCHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 5.8% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#628 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Niles City (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #507 of 656 in OH (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.24%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,984
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -65.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Wilson Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,548 (0%)	1mo	$44,000	$28	98
245 North Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-3%)	3mo	$181,000	$121	65
835 John St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,676 (+8%)	12mo	$185,000	$110	64
804 Cynthia Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-3%)	10mo	$287,000	$190	60
529 Warren Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,624 (+5%)	1mo	$220,000	$135	57
32 E Madison Ave	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,664 (+8%)	12mo	$149,000	$90	56
161 Bentwillow Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,508 (-3%)	12mo	$185,000	$123	56
22 Camrose Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+0%)	11mo	$216,500	$139	52
163 N Chestnut Ave	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,739 (+12%)	1mo	$165,500	$95	45
125 N Arlington Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,727 (+12%)	6mo	$127,000	$74	43
417 Vienna Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,385 (-10%)	10mo	$126,750	$92	42
834 Bowman St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-13%)	8mo	$168,000	$125	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $24,770
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $64,009
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44446

• Home prices YoY: -19.9%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,347/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $500

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $543	-5% $529	+0% $515	+5% $501	+10% $487
Rent	-10% $424	-5% $470	+0% $515	+5% $561	+10% $606
Rate	-1.0pp $540	-0.5pp $528	base $515	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Neil St #1 Niles, OH	2.0	1.0	1264	$950	$0.75	14d	1	0.55mi
5 Circle St Unit 5 Niles, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$850	$0.71	14d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $49,900 Pending 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,900 Contingent 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,900 Contingent 104 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Contingent 103 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $49,900 Contingent 102 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   historical Contingent 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Come see this 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home featuring a rear fenced yard and enclosed front and rear porches. Call today for your private tour.

7. 2026-04-27
   price $49,900 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Come see this 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home featuring a rear fenced yard and enclosed front and rear porches. Call today for your private tour.

8. 2026-03-23
   price $59,900 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Come see this 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home featuring a rear fenced yard and enclosed front and rear porches. Call today for your private tour.

9. 2026-02-15
   listed $74,900 Active 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Come see this 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home featuring a rear fenced yard and enclosed front and rear porches. Call today for your private tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,347 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,347 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,347
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,384
• After-tax cash flow: $4,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niles City
• NCES district ID: 3904449
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,965
• Composite: 37.02/100
• National rank: #4517
• State rank: #507 of 656 in OH

Livability — Niles

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niles, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 20,060
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 20,060
• Household income: $50,468
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 820.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.52%
• Current HPI: 198.7738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-33.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $49,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $59,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-02-15 Listed $74,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,347 · +29.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.