606 S Pine Hill St · Pinehurst, TX 77362

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1978 0.65 ac lot $210/sqft · at area comps Est $172k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CORNER LOT Country leaving very well located 3 bedrooms 2 baths great location big porch for summer tine . No deed restriction water Electricity available. Is must see proerty. Set a tour today. Won’t last.

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 96 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,893
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -4.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,539
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $46,189
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77362

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $553/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-03-14
    listed $175,000 Active 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    CORNER LOT Country leaving very well located 3 bedrooms 2 baths great location big porch for summer tine . No deed restriction water Electricity available. Is must see proerty. Set a tour today. Won’t last.

15. 2025-11-27
    historical
16. 2025-09-11
    price $160,000
17. 2025-08-19
    price $180,000
18. 2025-07-20
    listed $185,000 Active
19. 2023-11-15
    historical $1,400
20. 2023-11-11
    listed $1,400
21. 2020-03-24
    soldstatus
22. 2020-03-23
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2020-02-29
    status Pending
24. 2020-02-26
    price $44,900
25. 2020-02-26
    listed $40,000 Active
26. 1997-11-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,467/yr (+$206/mo · 446.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$553
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$856
• After-tax cash flow: $5,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,474

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.65%
• Current HPI: 284.6412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+337.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-20 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Rental Removed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2023-11-11 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2020-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-02-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-26 Price Changed $44,900 HARMLS
• 2020-02-26 Listed $40,000 HARMLS
• 1997-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $553 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.