44D Edinburgh Ln · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$199,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · Condo public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1973 $376/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy, carefree living in the highly sought-after Leisure Village West community in Manchester, NJ! This beautifully maintained ranch-style end unit offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a bright Florida room that provides the perfect space to enjoy your morning coffee, read a good book, or unwind with friends. From the moment you step inside, you'll appreciate just how clean and well cared for this home truly is. The convenient single-level layout makes everyday living simple, while the end-unit location offers added privacy and natural light. Whether you're looking to downsize, spend less time on maintenance, or simply enjoy all that active adult living has to offer, this home

Key facts

• Florida room
• Single-level layout
• End-unit location

Tags

• LEISURE VILLAGE WEST COMMUNITY
• FLORIDA ROOM
• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• END-UNIT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $376; Association amenities: Exercise room, Community room, Pool, Golf course, Clubhouse, Common area, Landscaping, Bocci; Association fee includes trash, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removal; Association name: Leisure Village West

Exterior

• Parking: No garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; Model: Greenbriar; Property is attached
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Microwave, Stove, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat; Central air conditioning; Heating present
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Dishwasher, Microwave, Stove, Refrigerator; Window treatments and blinds/shades; Ceiling fan(s); Screens
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($170/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $200k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,264
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,076
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,588/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$376
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,182

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $71	+0% $14	+5% $-42	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-73	+0% $14	+5% $101	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $65	base $14	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	46d	1	0.03mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	46d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $376 · $4,512/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,999 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $199,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,588 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,784 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,196/yr (+$100/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,588
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$4,512
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+515.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $199,999 MOMLS
• 2002-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1979-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,588 · +38.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.