12303 Lookout Loop Unit F09-13 · Truckee, CA 96161

$8,765

3 bd · None ba · 2,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 129 Days on market

$4/sqft · 38% below area Est $14k · 38% under $769/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INCENTIVE!! Seller is willing to pay the first 2 months of HOA Dues! Making your dream of owning a piece of Tahoe even easier to achieve. Enjoy the best of Tahoe living with this three-bedroom fractional ownership at Old Greenwood, offering an early summer week when Truckee is at its most vibrant. Crisp mountain mornings, long sun-filled days, and cool evenings create the perfect backdrop for golf, hiking, biking, and relaxing with family and friends. This beautifully appointed cabin blends classic mountain architecture with refined finishes, featuring an open-concept great room, gourmet kitchen, and seamless indoor-outdoor living—ideal for gathering after a day on the trails or the course. The three spacious bedrooms provide comfort and privacy for owners and guests alike. Ownership includes a minimum of four guaranteed weeks per year, with the opportunity to enjoy additional time through the flexible reservation system. As an owner, you’ll also enjoy Tahoe Mountain Club membership, granting access to Old Greenwood’s Jack Nicklaus Signature Golf Course, private clubhouse, pool, fitness facilities, and year-round Northstar amenities, including skiing, dining, and the members-only on-mountain lounges.

Key facts

• Fitness facilities
• Private clubhouse
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• INDOOR-OUTDOOR LIVING
• TAHOE MOUNTAIN CLUB MEMBERSHIP
• PRIVATE CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS FACILITIES
• YEAR-ROUND NORTHSTAR AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $9k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($61k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $9k).
• Recommended offer: $8k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 697.8% vs local median 2.1% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,444/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $61 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $263 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($8k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $7,713 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 84.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 697.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 2469.76%
• DSCR: 110.89
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $14,221
• List price: $8,765
• Delta: -38.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12283 Lookout Loop Unit F8-34	0.02mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	2mo	$20,000	$8	97
12323 Lookout Loop Unit F10-24	0.02mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	5mo	$13,500	$5	95
12381 Lookout Loop Unit F13-24	0.08mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	3mo	$12,750	$5	94
12423 Lookout Loop Unit F15-30	0.12mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	1mo	$21,000	$9	94
12463 Lookout Loop Unit F17-22	0.15mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	0mo	$7,000	$3	93
12448 Trappers Trl Unit F32-05	0.15mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	0mo	$1,000	—	93
12448 Trappers Trl Unit F32-28	0.15mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	1mo	$27,500	$11	92
12448 Trappers Trl Unit F32-24	0.15mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	2mo	$12,500	$5	91
12328 Frontier Trl Unit F27-07	0.07mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	7mo	$12,000	$5	91
12498 Lookout Loop Unit F38-26	0.20mi	3/3.5	2,470 (0%)	4mo	$23,000	$9	87
12041 Highland Ave	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,266 (-8%)	0mo	$1,240,000	$547	61
12191 Highland Ave	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,304 (-7%)	5mo	$1,170,000	$508	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 143.09×
• Total profit: $348,725
• Equity at exit: $1,307

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 344.64×
• Total profit: $843,367
• Equity at exit: $758

Cash invested: $2,454 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$46
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$11 /mo · $131/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$769
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,563
• Net cashflow: $5,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $8,765

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,057	-5% $5,054	+0% $5,051	+5% $5,048	+10% $5,045
Rent	-10% $4,463	-5% $4,757	+0% $5,051	+5% $5,345	+10% $5,639
Rate	-1.0pp $5,055	-0.5pp $5,053	base $5,051	+0.5pp $5,049	+1.0pp $5,046

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,191
• Closing costs: $263
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	44d	1	1.11mi
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	44d	1	1.11mi
10085 Nicolas Dr Unit A Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1871	$5,500	$2.94	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $769 · $9,228/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $8,765 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $8,765 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $8,765 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $8,765 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $8,765 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $8,765 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $8,765 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $8,765 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $8,765 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $8,765 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $8,765 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $8,765 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $8,765 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $8,765 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $8,765 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $8,765 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-03-31
    price $8,765 1238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1238 chars)

    INCENTIVE!! Seller is willing to pay the first 2 months of HOA Dues! Making your dream of owning a piece of Tahoe even easier to achieve. Enjoy the best of Tahoe living with this three-bedroom fractional ownership at Old Greenwood, offering an early summer week when Truckee is at its most vibrant. Crisp mountain mornings, long sun-filled days, and cool evenings create the perfect backdrop for golf, hiking, biking, and relaxing with family and friends. This beautifully appointed cabin blends classic mountain architecture with refined finishes, featuring an open-concept great room, gourmet kitchen, and seamless indoor-outdoor living—ideal for gathering after a day on the trails or the course. The three spacious bedrooms provide comfort and privacy for owners and guests alike. Ownership includes a minimum of four guaranteed weeks per year, with the opportunity to enjoy additional time through the flexible reservation system. As an owner, you’ll also enjoy Tahoe Mountain Club membership, granting access to Old Greenwood’s Jack Nicklaus Signature Golf Course, private clubhouse, pool, fitness facilities, and year-round Northstar amenities, including skiing, dining, and the members-only on-mountain lounges.

18. 2026-02-12
    listed $12,000 Active 1238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1238 chars)

    INCENTIVE!! Seller is willing to pay the first 2 months of HOA Dues! Making your dream of owning a piece of Tahoe even easier to achieve. Enjoy the best of Tahoe living with this three-bedroom fractional ownership at Old Greenwood, offering an early summer week when Truckee is at its most vibrant. Crisp mountain mornings, long sun-filled days, and cool evenings create the perfect backdrop for golf, hiking, biking, and relaxing with family and friends. This beautifully appointed cabin blends classic mountain architecture with refined finishes, featuring an open-concept great room, gourmet kitchen, and seamless indoor-outdoor living—ideal for gathering after a day on the trails or the course. The three spacious bedrooms provide comfort and privacy for owners and guests alike. Ownership includes a minimum of four guaranteed weeks per year, with the opportunity to enjoy additional time through the flexible reservation system. As an owner, you’ll also enjoy Tahoe Mountain Club membership, granting access to Old Greenwood’s Jack Nicklaus Signature Golf Course, private clubhouse, pool, fitness facilities, and year-round Northstar amenities, including skiing, dining, and the members-only on-mountain lounges.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$491
• − Property taxes: −$131
• − Insurance: −$44
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,146
• − Management: −$7,146
• − HOA: −$9,228
• − Depreciation: −$255
• Taxable income: $64,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15,572
• After-tax cash flow: $45,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-27.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $8,765 TSMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $12,000 TSMLS