30 N Dragonwood Pl · The Woodlands, TX 77381

$599,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,971 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1992 7,701 sqft lot $202/sqft · at area comps Est $625k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sought after heart of The Woodlands! 4/2.5 home situated in Cochrans Crossing w/ tasteful updates throughout. This light-filled residence offers a warm & inviting layout w/ generous living spaces, abundant windows & seamless flow between the living, kitchen & dining areas, ideal for everyday living & entertaining. The thoughtfully designed floorplan feat comfortable bedrooms, ample storage incl abundant under-stair storage & a beautifully updated primary bath creating a relaxing, spa-like retreat. Numerous major improvements provide both style & peace of mind, incl a NEW ROOF & NEW AC (March 2026). Additional updates include kitchen countertops(2012

Key facts

• Abundant windows
• Under stair storage
• Spa like retreat

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED RESIDENCE
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES
• ABUNDANT WINDOWS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• UNDER STAIR STORAGE
• SPA LIKE RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces southwest; Built in 1992; Entry level on first floor; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced private yard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Paved driveway; Subdivision setting with wooded and side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Conventional oven; Disposal; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 17); Bedroom on second floor (11 x 11); Bedroom on second floor (10 x 11); Bedroom on second floor (11 x 14)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas) with zoning; Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace (1); Breakfast bar and Butler's pantry; Crown molding; Double vanity in bath; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High and vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bedroom has en-suite bath; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry / Walk-in pantry; Tub/shower combination; Window coverings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $544k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $482k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $482k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); The Woodlands H S (math 71% / reading 86%, grade A-, #53 of 1,632 statewide, top 3%, 4,361 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 57% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Conroe ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($590k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $481,546 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $625,000
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: 1.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Sparklewood Pl	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,841 (-4%)	1mo	$649,999	$229	80
70 Amberglow Ct	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,607 (-12%)	0mo	$575,000	$221	72
82 E Coldbrook Cir	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,611 (-12%)	1mo	$619,900	$237	61
52 W Twinberry Pl	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,660 (-10%)	1mo	$550,000	$207	57
75 N Floral Leaf Cir	0.33mi	4/4.0	3,325 (+12%)	2mo	$750,000	$226	57
2 Thundercreek Pl	0.35mi	4/3.5	3,344 (+13%)	2mo	$937,000	$280	57
46 Indian Summer Pl	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,631 (-11%)	1mo	$617,774	$235	55
50 E Greywing Cir	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,704 (-9%)	2mo	$495,000	$183	55
59 E Rumplecreek Pl	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,590 (-13%)	1mo	$615,000	$237	53
35 Classic Oaks Pl	0.58mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,250 (+9%)	0mo	$795,000	$245	48
34 Lost Pond Cir	0.58mi	4/4.0	3,383 (+14%)	1mo	$915,000	$270	43
18 Gallant Oak Pl	0.63mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,406 (+15%)	2mo	$795,000	$233	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-121,210
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-148,456
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77381

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$725 /mo · $8,698/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,011
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,210

Max offer price $543,987

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 S Winterport Cir Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2386	$2,850	$1.19	43d	1	0.92mi
35 Alden Glen Dr Spring, TX	5.0	3.0	2676	$10,750	$4.02	24d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $599,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $635,000 1024-char remark
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $649,000 Active 1024-char remark
16. 2005-06-10
    soldstatus
17. 2005-06-01
    soldstatus
18. 2003-05-02
    soldstatus
19. 1992-03-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,698 · $725/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,962 · $913/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,264/yr (+$189/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$8,698
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,623
• − Management: −$4,623
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$14,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,392
• After-tax cash flow: $-345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,139
• Household income: $143,565
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 530.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.06%
• Current HPI: 271.7165
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $599,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $635,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $649,000 HARMLS
• 2005-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,698 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.