15515 Mint Patch Mdw · San Antonio, TX 78073

$264,500

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $140/sqft · 6% below area Est $282k · 6% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Franklin plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This new home layout offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1,892 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Walk-in shower
• Quartz counter tops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,607 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,737
• List price: $264,500
• Delta: -6.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15431 Mint Patch Mdw	0.04mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	2mo	$254,795	$135	96
15527 Mint Patch Mdw	0.01mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	7mo	$268,499	$142	94
4267 Marjoram Lndg	0.11mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	2mo	$255,295	$135	93
4239 Marjoram Lndg	0.13mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	2mo	$255,295	$135	92
4223 Marjoram Lndg	0.15mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	1mo	$254,795	$135	92
4230 Paprika Grv	0.09mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	6mo	$268,499	$142	91
15423 Mint Patch Mdw	0.06mi	5/2.5	1,971 (+4%)	2mo	$256,765	$130	89
4235 Paprika Grv	0.10mi	5/2.5	1,971 (+4%)	1mo	$262,265	$133	88
4235 Marjoram Lndg	0.14mi	5/2.5	1,971 (+4%)	1mo	$262,265	$133	86
4215 Tarragon Pl	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,968 (+4%)	9mo	$287,999	$146	75
15326 Waterow Vw	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (-5%)	1mo	$279,900	$156	63
4115 Hidden Holw	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,793 (-5%)	3mo	$199,900	$111	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $33,293
• Equity at exit: $113,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $115,482
• Equity at exit: $169,747

Cash invested: $74,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,387
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,015

Max offer price $264,500

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $186	+0% $111	+5% $36	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $26	+0% $111	+5% $196	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $179	base $111	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,125
• Closing costs: $7,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15559 Mint Patch Mdw Unit 1 Von Ormy, TX	5.0	3.0	2498	$600	$0.24	45d	1	0.11mi
4323 Caraway Bay Von Ormy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1572	$2,305	$1.47	3d	6	0.13mi
15115 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,795	$1.00	16d	1	0.34mi
15114 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	3.5	2198	$2,000	$0.91	23d	1	0.36mi
15315 Waterow Vw Von Ormy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1781	$2,400	$1.35	3d	1	0.47mi
15237 Snug Harbor Way Von Ormy, TX	5.0	3.0	2542	$2,100	$0.83	45d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,500 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,500 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,500 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,500 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,500 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,500 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,500 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,500 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,500 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,500 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,500 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $264,500 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,500 Price Change 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,500 Price Change 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $249,500 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Franklin plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This new home layout offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1,892 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

16. 2026-04-10
    price $250,000 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Franklin plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This new home layout offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1,892 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

17. 2026-03-17
    listed $265,000 New 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Franklin plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This new home layout offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1,892 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

18. 2026-02-24
    soldstatus
19. 2026-02-09
    status Pending
20. 2026-02-03
    historical
21. 2026-01-27
    price $254,795
22. 2025-12-10
    price $273,795
23. 2025-10-21
    price $273,294
24. 2025-10-02
    listed $279,795 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,840 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,099/yr (+$342/mo · 553.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,816
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,695
• Taxable loss: −$3,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$777
• After-tax cash flow: $2,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, interior walls, and flooring. The kitchen and bathroom are in good condition. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting.
• Rental Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and may need replacing to maintain a clean and modern look for rental properties.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Rental Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and may need replacing to maintain a clean and modern look for rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $249,500 LERA
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $250,000 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Listed $265,000 LERA
• 2026-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-09 Pending — LERA
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $254,795 LERA
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $273,795 LERA
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $273,294 LERA
• 2025-10-02 Listed $279,795 LERA

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $741 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.