25 Mcallister Dr · Freedom Plains, NY 12569

$475,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1962 1.14 ac lot Est $502k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BEDROOM SPLIT LEVEL SITUATED ON BEAUTIFUL 1.14 ACRE PARK LIKE PROPERTY. MAIN LEVEL FEATURES KITCHEN, LIVING ROOM & DINING ROOM. MASTER BEDROOM W/ENSUITE HALF BATH & WALK-IN CLOSET. LOWER LEVEL INCLUDES LARGE FAMILY ROOM W/WOOD STOVE, OFFICE & HALF BATH/LAUNDRY ROOM. NEW BOILER. 2 CAR GARAGE FOR ABUNDANT STORAGE. THREE SEASON ROOM OVERLOOKING EXPANSIVE BACKYARD INCLUDES INGROUND POOL PATIO W/BUILT-IN FIREPLACE & STORAGE SHED. PRIVATE & QUIET YET CENTRALLY LOCATED & JUST MINUTES FROM SCHOOLS, SHOPPING, TACONIC STATE PARKWAY, POUGHKEEPSIE TRAIN STATION & AREA ATTRACTIONS. SOLD AS-IS.,Level 1 Desc:FAMILY ROOM W/WOODSTOVE, OFFICE, .5 BATH/LAUNDRY,FLOORING:Ceramic Tile,Wood,Vinyl,OTHERROOMS:Formal Dining Room,Family Room,Laundry/Util. Room,Office/Computer Room,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,InteriorFeatures:Electric Dryer Connection,Electric Stove Connection,Walk-In Closets,Washer Connection,AboveGrade:1800,Level 2 Desc:LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM, KITCHEN,Level 3 Desc:MASTER BEDROOM W/ENSUITE .5 BATH, 2 BEDROOMS, FULL BATH,FOUNDATION:Block

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private in-ground pool

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; 2 garage spaces (has garage); Total parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric service; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding; Block and concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Outdoor lighting; Mailbox; Shed(s); Back yard; Cleared and landscaped yard; Paved areas; Wooded portions

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Wood heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s); One fireplace (free-standing, in basement)
• Interior features: Formal dining room; Pantry; Storage; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-381/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $469k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $450k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Freedom Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Overlook Primary School (402 students, 25% FRL); Lagrange Middle School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 865 students, 38% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($468k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 49% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $376k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $450,000 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $502,200
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Mcallister Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,701 (-6%)	1mo	$475,000	$279	85
347 Overlook	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,800 (0%)	11mo	$400,000	$222	83
9 Mcallister Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,670 (-7%)	5mo	$475,000	$284	75
7 Nied Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-4%)	2mo	$485,000	$281	66
218 Freedom Rd	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,592 (-12%)	18mo	$408,000	$256	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-78,735
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-70,127
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12569

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$898 /mo · $10,774/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,540

Max offer price $469,398

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $103	+0% $-32	+5% $-166	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-209	+0% $-32	+5% $146	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $89	base $-32	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Glen Ct Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.0	1782	$4,500	$2.53	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $475,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $475,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $475,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricestatus $475,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $450,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,774 · $898/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,774 · $898/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$10,774
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$8,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,972
• After-tax cash flow: $1,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Freedom Plains

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #13585

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,766

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.72%
• Current HPI: 240.7838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+216.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $376,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-08 Sold (MLS) $375,555 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-19 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-09 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $302,500 Public Records
• 1994-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,774 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.