125 Woods Lake Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$225,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1996 1.23 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you looking for that perfect project? Someplace to put your mark on and call it home? I've got what you're looking for! This property is priced WAY below appraised value and it's your opportunity to live in Madison at an incredible price. This home has 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, split plan on 1.23 acres. It needs some work as in a roof and some foundation work but it's not awful! This is your opportunity but be patient! This is a short sale and we are working on that as I type this! Drag your Realtor out today!

Key facts

• 1.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.98%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $42,389
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $134,692
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,628/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$732
• Net cashflow: $1,259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 Dave Brown Rd Canton, MS	2.0	2.5	1790	$2,400	$1.34	21d	1	0.66mi
145 Republic St Madison, MS	3.0	3.0	2800	$8,000	$2.86	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2025-05-09
   status Pending
4. 2025-05-09
   historical
5. 2025-05-08
   listed $250,000 Active
6. 2025-05-06
   historical
7. 2025-04-29
   price $275,000
8. 2025-03-26
   price $285,000
9. 2025-01-20
   listed $299,000 Active
10. 2022-03-25
    soldstatus
11. 2022-03-24
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2022-02-19
    status Pending
13. 2022-02-17
    listed $355,000 Active
14. 2017-06-15
    soldstatus
15. 2017-05-09
    listed $209,000
16. 1996-04-07
    soldstatus
17. 1994-05-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,628 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,628 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,628
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,344
• − Management: −$3,344
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $12,210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,930
• After-tax cash flow: $12,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-26 Listed $225,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-09 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-05-09 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-05-08 Listed $250,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-06 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $275,000 MLSU
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $285,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-20 Listed $299,000 MLSU
• 2022-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-24 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-02-19 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-02-17 Listed $355,000 MLSU
• 2017-06-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-05-09 Listed $209,000 MLSU
• 1996-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,628 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.