23404 Flickering Sky Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$255,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,116 sqft lot $118/sqft · 10% below area Est $284k · 10% under $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage II is a collection of new homes for sale at Elm Creek, a masterplan community in the charming city of Elgin, TX. The community offers affordable homes and access to a state-of-the-art community center. There are tons of local shops and restaurants nearby, plus Austin is only 40 minutes away for more entertainment options.

Key facts

• 4,116 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $218,026 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,244
• List price: $255,999
• Delta: -9.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13408 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,288 (+5%)	1mo	$310,990	$136	84
23405 Firelight Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,149 (-1%)	2mo	$293,990	$137	83
13328 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,288 (+5%)	2mo	$292,990	$128	82
23825 Glowing Embers Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,162 (-0%)	2mo	$258,990	$120	77
13401 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,954 (-10%)	2mo	$257,990	$132	76
13413 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-14%)	1mo	$266,999	$143	74
23409 Firelight Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,954 (-10%)	2mo	$261,990	$134	72
13317 Winton Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,913 (-12%)	0mo	$286,999	$150	70
13320 Winton Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-12%)	1mo	$268,000	$141	69
13313 Winton Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-12%)	1mo	$290,000	$152	68
13301 Winton Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-12%)	2mo	$277,000	$145	66
23813 Glowing Embers Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-13%)	1mo	$258,999	$137	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $133,274
• Equity at exit: $230,624

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $398,236
• Equity at exit: $497,350

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,840/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $241,276

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $-13	+0% $-102	+5% $-190	+10% $-279
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-188	+0% $-102	+5% $-16	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-37	base $-102	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	21d	1	0.17mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	19d	1	0.28mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	23d	1	0.28mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	45d	1	0.39mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.68mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	0.70mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	25d	1	0.79mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	17d	1	0.79mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	0.83mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.83mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	45d	1	0.86mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.94mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	0.95mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	1.01mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	1.06mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	1.06mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,999 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,999 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,999 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,999 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,999 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $255,999 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $254,999 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $255,999 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,999 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $257,999 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $257,999 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,999 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,999 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,999 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,999 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $282,999 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Cottage II is a collection of new homes for sale at Elm Creek, a masterplan community in the charming city of Elgin, TX. The community offers affordable homes and access to a state-of-the-art community center. There are tons of local shops and restaurants nearby, plus Austin is only 40 minutes away for more entertainment options.

17. 2026-05-11
    price $282,999 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $278,999 Active 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$3,840
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$5,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,342
• After-tax cash flow: $121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is move-in ready with a fresh exterior, interior, and landscaping. It offers a modern open-concept floorplan and four bedrooms, including a luxurious owner's suite. The home is located in a masterplan community with access to a state-of-the-art community center and local shops and restaurants.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look new and appealing.
• Both Appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Lighting — Upgrading lighting can make the home more inviting and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look new and appealing. ↑
• Both Appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Lighting — Upgrading lighting can make the home more inviting and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $282,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $282,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $278,999 Unlock MLS