20480 County Road 137 · Branford, FL 32024

$243,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1997 4.05 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful landscaping surrounds this Immaculate 3/2 SWMH. Home features split bedrooms, large great room and very spacious kitchen. Master bath was updated several years ago with walk in shower. Relax on the screened back porch while listening to the waterfall falling over the rocks into a large pond. Detached 1 car garage, double car carport, several outbuilding for gardening etc. Electric fireplace and a wood burning fireplace as well. Fenced and has gate at gravel circular driveway. A must see to enjoy the birds & quiet surroundings.

Key facts

• Mature oak trees
• Large kitchen
• 4.3 acres

Tags

• 4.3 ACRES
• MATURE OAK TREES
• ESTABLISHED LANDSCAPING
• LARGE COVERED PORCHES
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• LARGE KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on County Road 137; Property is homesteaded; Lot about 4.05 acres (2 to less than 5 acres)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Storage; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $243k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($106/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Branford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#748 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Suwannee (town): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 73 in FL (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Suwannee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $243k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,599 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3520 208th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	7mo	$170,000	$136	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $132,793
• Equity at exit: $218,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $390,387
• Equity at exit: $472,096

Cash invested: $68,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $887/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,835

Max offer price $243,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,750
• Closing costs: $7,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $243,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $243,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $243,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $243,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $243,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $243,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $243,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $243,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $243,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $243,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $243,000 Active
17. 2018-08-01
    soldstatus $75,500
18. 2018-06-25
    soldstatus $75,500 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Beautiful landscaping surrounds this Immaculate 3/2 SWMH. Home features split bedrooms, large great room and very spacious kitchen. Master bath was updated several years ago with walk in shower. Relax on the screened back porch while listening to the waterfall falling over the rocks into a large pond. Detached 1 car garage, double car carport, several outbuilding for gardening etc. Electric fireplace and a wood burning fireplace as well. Fenced and has gate at gravel circular driveway. A must see to enjoy the birds & quiet surroundings.

19. 2017-12-04
    soldstatus $69,000
20. 2017-11-01
    soldstatus $69,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Rare Find! Immaculate 3/2 SWMH on 3.75 fenced acres. Come home to a place that offers a huge back screened porch w/ sound of a water fall from the Coy Pond, 2+ carport with workshops and outbuildings. Could be a home office. A must for quite living, Many more features.

21. 2003-05-22
    soldstatus $66,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $887 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,017 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,130/yr (+$94/mo · 127.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,612
• − Property taxes: −$887
• − Insurance: −$1,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − Depreciation: −$7,069
• Taxable loss: −$4,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $1,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suwannee
• NCES district ID: 1201830
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,785
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4503
• State rank: #52 of 73 in FL

Livability — Branford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #748
• US rank: #16225

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Suwannee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,226 people
• By 2030: 45,833 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 46,631 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 46,544 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 43,635 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 34,318 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suwannee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.3% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.3 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+265.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $243,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records
• 2018-06-25 Sold (MLS) $75,500 NFMLS
• 2017-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-01 Sold (MLS) $69,000 NFMLS
• 2003-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $887 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.