130 Melody Ln · Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$105,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1972 4,000 sqft lot $326/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Tarpon Shores community in beautiful Tarpon Springs, this FULLY FURNISHED 2BR/2BA mobile home offers comfortable Florida living with the added benefit of owning the land — no lot lease! Features include a utility shed with washer & dryer, side screened in Florida Room, plus a roof replaced in 2021 for added peace of mind. Unparalleled 55+ Community Amenities & Value Tarpon Shores offers an exceptional array of activities, creating a vibrant & active community for its residents: Community Center: The bustling hub for social gatherings and events. A Sparkling Swimming Pool: Perfect for refreshing dips and soaking up the Florida sun. Pickleball

Key facts

• Full chef's kitchen
• Utility shed
• Billiards room

Tags

• UTILITY SHED
• SIDE FLORIDA ROOM
• ROOF REPLACED
• SPARKLING SWIMMING POOL
• FULL CHEF'S KITCHEN
• BILLIARDS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Community features: Deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, no truck/RV/motorcycle parking
• Financial info: Taxes paid annually (listed tax amount available); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $326); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court, laundry, maintenance, gated entry, vehicle restrictions, fence restrictions; Association approval required; Association fee covers cable TV, internet, pool, maintenance of grounds, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces north; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built area approximately 660 square feet
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open living/dining area; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $106k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $106k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.4% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $732 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $106k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,723 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.21%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,128
• Equity at exit: $15,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,351
• Equity at exit: $9,156

Cash invested: $29,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34689

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$555
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,130/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$326
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $105,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,475
• Closing costs: $3,177
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
825 Cypress St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,723	$2.30	2d	6	0.77mi
1185 S Pinellas Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,154	$2.12	2d	21	0.87mi
101 W Lemon St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,450	$2.23	4d	1	1.05mi
101 W Lemon St Unit 4 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,450	$2.23	14d	1	1.05mi
101 W Lemon St Apt 3 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,350	$2.08	22d	1	1.05mi
1250 S Pinellas Ave #504 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	565	$1,099	$1.95	24d	1	1.06mi
105 S Spring Blvd Unit 10 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	24d	1	1.24mi
812 Bayou Ave Unit B Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	675	$1,450	$2.15	24d	1	1.25mi
820 Paradise Blvd Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	480	$1,223	$2.55	8d	1	1.26mi
542 Division St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	629	$1,400	$2.23	12d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $326 · $3,912/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $105,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-14
    listed $105,900 Active
14. 2024-03-06
    historical
15. 2023-11-16
    listed $119,900 Active
16. 2010-05-18
    soldstatus $30,000
17. 2009-01-14
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,130 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,130 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,932
• − Property taxes: −$1,130
• − Insurance: −$530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − HOA: −$3,912
• − Depreciation: −$3,081
• Taxable income: $1,960
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$470
• After-tax cash flow: $2,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tarpon Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarpon Springs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 27,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,324
• Household income: $74,854
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.96%
• Current HPI: 303.7434
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+253.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $105,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-16 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,130 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.