2530 Lexington Ct · Toms River, NJ 08527

$312,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1984 $283/sqft · 23% below area Est $404k · 23% under $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE DROP. .. Welcome. Cul-De-Sac, quiet, two bedroom with one and half baths. Nice size backyard. Great starter home. Additional Pictures coming.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Built 1984
• Listed 151 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($207/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $312k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,386
• List price: $312,000
• Delta: -22.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,601
• Equity at exit: $46,520

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-80,193
• Equity at exit: $26,976

Cash invested: $87,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,127/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,779

Max offer price $312,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,000
• Closing costs: $9,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $312,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $312,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $312,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $312,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $312,000 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    PRICE DROP. .. Welcome. Cul-De-Sac, quiet, two bedroom with one and half baths. Nice size backyard. Great starter home. Additional Pictures coming.

16. 2026-04-03
    price $320,000 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    PRICE DROP. .. Welcome. Cul-De-Sac, quiet, two bedroom with one and half baths. Nice size backyard. Great starter home. Additional Pictures coming.

17. 2026-01-15
    listed $325,000 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    PRICE DROP. .. Welcome. Cul-De-Sac, quiet, two bedroom with one and half baths. Nice size backyard. Great starter home. Additional Pictures coming.

18. 1998-06-03
    soldstatus $52,000
19. 1998-05-07
    soldstatus $52,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    W. COUNTY LINE ROAD TO LEFT ONTO HOPE CHAPEL TO LEFT ONTO LEXINGTON BLVD. (1,104 +/-SFLS), POOR CONDITION, 4 ROOMS TOTAL, NO SELLER CONCESSIONS. LOCATED ON QUIET STREET. CONNECTED HOUSE. ASSOCIATION FEE OF$58.00 PER MONTH. HOUSE WAS ON SHARED SEPTIC SYSTEM WITH ATTACHED UNIT. HOUSE WAS PURCHASED BY BUYER FROM WITH'N OCEAN COUNTY. THIS WAS A FORECLOSURE!

20. 1998-03-26
    historical 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    W. COUNTY LINE ROAD TO LEFT ONTO HOPE CHAPEL TO LEFT ONTO LEXINGTON BLVD. (1,104 +/-SFLS), POOR CONDITION, 4 ROOMS TOTAL, NO SELLER CONCESSIONS. LOCATED ON QUIET STREET. CONNECTED HOUSE. ASSOCIATION FEE OF$58.00 PER MONTH. HOUSE WAS ON SHARED SEPTIC SYSTEM WITH ATTACHED UNIT. HOUSE WAS PURCHASED BY BUYER FROM WITH'N OCEAN COUNTY. THIS WAS A FORECLOSURE!

21. 1998-01-20
    listed $52,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    W. COUNTY LINE ROAD TO LEFT ONTO HOPE CHAPEL TO LEFT ONTO LEXINGTON BLVD. (1,104 +/-SFLS), POOR CONDITION, 4 ROOMS TOTAL, NO SELLER CONCESSIONS. LOCATED ON QUIET STREET. CONNECTED HOUSE. ASSOCIATION FEE OF$58.00 PER MONTH. HOUSE WAS ON SHARED SEPTIC SYSTEM WITH ATTACHED UNIT. HOUSE WAS PURCHASED BY BUYER FROM WITH'N OCEAN COUNTY. THIS WAS A FORECLOSURE!

22. 1988-02-17
    soldstatus $84,500
23. 1983-04-01
    soldstatus $49,770

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,127 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,948 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,821/yr (+$152/mo · 44.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,477
• − Property taxes: −$4,127
• − Insurance: −$1,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$9,076
• Taxable loss: −$5,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,208
• After-tax cash flow: $1,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+526.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $312,000 SJSRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $320,000 SJSRMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $325,000 SJSRMLS
• 1998-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-07 Sold (MLS) $52,000 MOMLS
• 1998-03-26 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-01-20 Listed $52,000 MOMLS
• 1988-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records
• 1983-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,770 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,127 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.