13055 Rock Creek Park · Shady Hills, FL 34667

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 2003 9,183 sqft lot Est $290k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Cozy, practical and well-maintained manufactured home is ready and waiting for you. The Kitchen and dining room face the Southend of the home. Watch the sun rise at the breakfast table in the kitchen with the window facing East. A glass storm door entryway into the kitchen is quite convenient. The utility room with shelving, washer and dryer is adjacent to the kitchen. Kitchen appliances and lighting have been updated. The Gallery style kitchen has faux granite finish on the counter tops. Correction made Air conditioner was replaced in November of 2020 and the duct work was cleaned within the last five years. Owners replaced the flooring throughout wi

Key facts

• Window facing east
• Duct work cleaned
• 9,183 sq ft lot

Tags

• WINDOW FACING EAST
• GLASS STORM DOOR ENTRYWAY
• UTILITY ROOM WITH SHELVING
• UPDATED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• AIR CONDITIONER REPLACED
• DUCT WORK CLEANED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: Community mailbox; Golf carts allowed; Street lights; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Private-maintained road

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Cable available and connected; Electricity connected; Phone available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Attached property; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as completed condition
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Awnings; Rain gutters; Shed(s); Landscaped with trees; Corner lot; Sloped lot; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Split bedroom floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds, drapes, rods)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry area in kitchen and separate laundry room; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $200k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.09%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,304
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13255 Treaty Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+3%)	4mo	$330,000	$278	61
13211 Media	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (-1%)	14mo	$277,000	$243	61
13117 Media Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	4mo	$315,000	$252	57
16837 Akins Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,305 (+13%)	6mo	$275,000	$211	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,673
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,097
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $683/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,505

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-02-04
    listed $200,000 Active
11. 2026-01-01
    historical
12. 2025-12-01
    status Active
13. 2025-11-30
    historical
14. 2025-11-06
    status Active
15. 2025-11-06
    price $229,900
16. 2025-10-15
    status Pending
17. 2025-09-03
    price $234,500
18. 2025-03-27
    price $239,500
19. 2025-03-07
    listed $254,900 Active
20. 2018-08-09
    soldstatus $72,000
21. 2017-09-22
    soldstatus $57,500
22. 1998-02-18
    soldstatus $30,000
23. 1995-06-05
    soldstatus $185,000
24. 1995-02-06
    soldstatus $16,000
25. 1994-07-22
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$977/yr (+$81/mo · 143.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$683
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $2,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1900.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $234,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $239,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Listed $254,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 1998-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 1995-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $683 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.