18717 Mill Villa #612 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$99,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $95k · 5% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover easy living in this well-maintained mobile home, perfectly situated in a desirable senior park between Jamestown and Sonora. This home offers thoughtful features for comfort and convenience, including central heat and air, an evaporative cooler and a pellet stove with battery backup, ensuring warmth even during power outages. The electrical system is prepped for a whole-house generator, providing peace of mind. The open kitchen with a breakfast bar flows seamlessly into the living area, creating an inviting space for cooking and entertainment. The split floor plan offers privacy, with the master suite on one end and the guest bedroom and bath on the other. A spacious den adds versa

Key facts

• Central heat and air
• Split floor plan
• Evaporative cooler

Tags

• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• EVAPORATIVE COOLER
• WHOLE-HOUSE GENERATOR
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Park: Mill Villa Mobile Home Park; Community clubhouse; Community pool and spa; BBQ / barbecue area

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) in a park; Model: Karsten
• Construction: Fiber cement siding; Composition shingle roof; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Deck; Awnings; Level site; In-ground pool; Heated spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Built-in range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Primary bedroom suite on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom includes a tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Pellet stove heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Den; Double pane windows; Pellet stove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $648 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $90,545 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.91%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa #101 #101	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	18mo	$144,000	$138	85
18717 Mill Villa Rd #421 #421	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,135 (+9%)	6mo	$72,000	$63	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #250	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	944 (-9%)	3mo	$85,500	$91	77
18717 Mill Villa Rd #402 #402	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-8%)	12mo	$89,000	$93	72
18725 Hwy 108 #71 #71	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	22mo	$59,000	$51	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $25,120
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $74,898
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $433/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $759

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $704	-5% $676	+0% $648	+5% $620	+10% $592
Rent	-10% $523	-5% $586	+0% $648	+5% $710	+10% $773
Rate	-1.0pp $698	-0.5pp $673	base $648	+0.5pp $622	+1.0pp $596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,500 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    price $99,500
18. 2026-03-05
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $433 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $756 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$323/yr (+$27/mo · 74.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$433
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $6,517
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,564
• After-tax cash flow: $6,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $99,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-05 Listed $110,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $433 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.