12559 Timber Creek Dr #5 · Carmel, IN 46032

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · Condo public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1989 $256/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see one of the most tastefully updated properties in desirable Timber Creek. Newer mechanicals, flooring, appliances, paint and much more. 2 bedroom, 2 full bath, vaulted ceiling in Great Room with fireplace. Enjoy morning coffee on your private balcony. Secured entry. Private garage/storage. And this property has one of the best locations in Carmel. Walk to the Monon, Carmel Arts & Design District, the Palladium and Farmer's Market. Storage Room #5 included.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Pool
• Storage unit

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO PALLADIUM
• EASY ACCESS TO MONON TRAIL
• COVERED DECK
• PRIVATE PARKING SPACE
• STORAGE UNIT
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.7% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#7 in IN, #726 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Carmel Clay Schools (urban): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #1 of 301 in IN (top 0%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $235k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $231,255 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.62%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,967
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $23,659
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46032

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,313 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,822/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$256
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,200

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1059 Timber Creek Dr Carmel, IN	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,850	$1.34	43d	1	0.10mi
12484 Breaklines St Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,044	$1.96	1d	19	0.18mi
675 Beacon St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,395	$2.42	1d	18	0.26mi
358 Dartmouth St Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,095	$1.76	2d	1	0.32mi
301 American Way N Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1167	$2,980	$2.55	1d	1	0.45mi
300 Providence Blvd Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	990	$2,019	$2.04	1d	35	0.49mi
881 3rd Ave SW Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1135	$1,999	$1.76	1d	2	0.50mi
400 Industrial Dr Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1175	$3,570	$3.04	1d	59	0.52mi
833 W Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1304	$3,485	$2.67	7d	23	0.55mi
880 Monon Green Blvd Carmel, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$3,235	$3.10	43d	5	0.59mi
947 Wickham Ct #206 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	2d	1	0.60mi
750 Veterans Way Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1144	$4,282	$3.74	1d	1	0.61mi
591 Monon Blvd Carmel, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$2,951	$3.73	1d	24	0.62mi
530 W Main St Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0–1.5	875	$1,412	$1.61	1d	1	0.67mi
1111 W Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$3,224	$3.46	1d	8	0.67mi
720 S Rangeline Rd Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$3,345	$3.07	1d	1	0.68mi
12415 N Pennsylvania St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,824	$1.94	1d	21	0.79mi
25 Florence St Carmel, IN	2.0	2.5	1338	$2,249	$1.68	10d	1	0.79mi
1225 Veterans Way Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,483	$2.47	1d	10	0.83mi
110 W Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1095	$3,868	$3.53	1d	16	0.83mi
760 Walkabout Cir E Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	569	$2,224	$3.91	1d	24	0.84mi
231 Lark Dr #3 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0	925	$1,195	$1.29	1d	1	0.86mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 221-03 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.5	876	$1,499	$1.71	20d	1	0.97mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 221-08 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.5	876	$1,499	$1.71	1d	1	0.97mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 220-06 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	876	$1,499	$1.71	1d	1	0.97mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 220-03 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	876	$1,429	$1.63	1d	1	0.98mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit T-203 Carmel, IN	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,199	$1.72	7d	1	0.98mi
221 E Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,099	$2.08	1d	8	1.00mi
13415 Highpointe Blvd Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	728	$1,518	$2.08	1d	14	1.16mi
1685 E 116th St Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,475	$2.77	1d	28	1.17mi
11405 Central Dr W Carmel, IN	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,600	$1.85	1d	1	1.23mi
741 N Rangeline Rd Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,275	$1.50	1d	1	1.24mi
1825 Jefferson Dr W Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1350	$2,570	$1.90	1d	24	1.28mi
525 End DR Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,380	$2.49	1d	13	1.33mi
945 Mohawk Hills Dr Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1210	$1,947	$1.61	1d	33	1.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $256 · $3,072/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $235,000 Active
3. 2016-10-12
   soldstatus $104,000 Sold 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Come see one of the most tastefully updated properties in desirable Timber Creek. Newer mechanicals, flooring, appliances, paint and much more. 2 bedroom, 2 full bath, vaulted ceiling in Great Room with fireplace. Enjoy morning coffee on your private balcony. Secured entry. Private garage/storage. And this property has one of the best locations in Carmel. Walk to the Monon, Carmel Arts & Design District, the Palladium and Farmer's Market. Storage Room #5 included.

4. 2016-08-25
   status Pending 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Come see one of the most tastefully updated properties in desirable Timber Creek. Newer mechanicals, flooring, appliances, paint and much more. 2 bedroom, 2 full bath, vaulted ceiling in Great Room with fireplace. Enjoy morning coffee on your private balcony. Secured entry. Private garage/storage. And this property has one of the best locations in Carmel. Walk to the Monon, Carmel Arts & Design District, the Palladium and Farmer's Market. Storage Room #5 included.

5. 2016-08-22
   listed $105,900 Active 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Come see one of the most tastefully updated properties in desirable Timber Creek. Newer mechanicals, flooring, appliances, paint and much more. 2 bedroom, 2 full bath, vaulted ceiling in Great Room with fireplace. Enjoy morning coffee on your private balcony. Secured entry. Private garage/storage. And this property has one of the best locations in Carmel. Walk to the Monon, Carmel Arts & Design District, the Palladium and Farmer's Market. Storage Room #5 included.

6. 2009-06-02
   historical
7. 2008-06-20
   listed $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,822 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,822
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,220
• − Management: −$2,220
• − HOA: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$2,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$662
• After-tax cash flow: $1,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Clay Schools
• NCES district ID: 1801200
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $102,347
• Composite: 63.54/100
• National rank: #608
• State rank: #1 of 301 in IN

Livability — Carmel

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmel, IN
• County: Hamilton County · 337,479 people
• City population: 99,910
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 51,515
• Household income: $132,085
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1216.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,938 people
• By 2030: 417,496 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 486,684 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 549,805 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 687,078 · +79.9%
• By 2100: 754,495 · +97.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Asian 10% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.0% · R 52.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.2pp toward D · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.06%
• Current HPI: 221.9087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.47%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+123.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $235,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-12 Sold (MLS) $104,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-25 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-22 Listed $105,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-02 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-20 Listed $105,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,822 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.