22516 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Dr · Patton Village, TX 77357

$274,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · Land · 136 Days on market

Built 2025 6,488 sqft lot $159/sqft · at area comps Est $285k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this exceptional new construction home at 22516 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 well-appointed bathrooms featuring contemporary fixtures • 1,732 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space • Open-concept living space perfect for daily living and entertaining • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a family-friendly atmosphere • Excellent proximity to parks for outdoor recreation and community activities • Located in a sought-after area known for its peaceful residential setting The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family needs, guests, or a home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that maximizes every square foot for modern living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 70279116

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Chef-worthy kitchen
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF-WORTHY KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-299/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $211,794 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,867
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -3.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-52,024
• Equity at exit: $41,002

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-70,168
• Equity at exit: $23,776

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,149

Max offer price $270,588

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $53	+0% $-25	+5% $-103	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-109	+0% $-25	+5% $59	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $45	base $-25	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,748
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21811 Hickory Springs Ct New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,700	$1.01	26d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,990 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $274,990 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,990 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,990 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,990 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,990 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $277,990 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $277,990 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    price $277,990 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,990 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $282,990 Active 115 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $284,990 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Discover this exceptional new construction home at 22516 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 well-appointed bathrooms featuring contemporary fixtures • 1,732 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space • Open-concept living space perfect for daily living and entertaining • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a family-friendly atmosphere • Excellent proximity to parks for outdoor recreation and community activities • Located in a sought-after area known for its peaceful residential setting The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family needs, guests, or a home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that maximizes every square foot for modern living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 70279116

19. 2026-05-18
    price $284,990 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    READY NOW! The Freestone floor plan is a stunning single-story home. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, it offers a spacious, open-concept layout, perfect for entertaining guests. The family room boasts high ceilings, while the chef-worthy kitchen features an oversized island and a spacious pantry, creating an ideal space for family and friends to gather. The en-suite bathroom, with a walk-in shower, enclosed toilet area, and a massive walk-in closet, is perfect for getting ready. The owner's suite has a bay window perfect for a cozy reading nook or sitting area. The covered patio on the rear exterior is ideal for outdoor relaxation. If you're interested in seeing how the Freestone floor plan can meet your needs, please contact us today to schedule your private tour and experience the charm of this home for yourself.

20. 2026-04-21
    price $285,990 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Discover this exceptional new construction home at 22516 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 well-appointed bathrooms featuring contemporary fixtures • 1,732 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space • Open-concept living space perfect for daily living and entertaining • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a family-friendly atmosphere • Excellent proximity to parks for outdoor recreation and community activities • Located in a sought-after area known for its peaceful residential setting The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family needs, guests, or a home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that maximizes every square foot for modern living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 70279116

21. 2026-04-20
    price $285,990 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    READY NOW! The Freestone floor plan is a stunning single-story home. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, it offers a spacious, open-concept layout, perfect for entertaining guests. The family room boasts high ceilings, while the chef-worthy kitchen features an oversized island and a spacious pantry, creating an ideal space for family and friends to gather. The en-suite bathroom, with a walk-in shower, enclosed toilet area, and a massive walk-in closet, is perfect for getting ready. The owner's suite has a bay window perfect for a cozy reading nook or sitting area. The covered patio on the rear exterior is ideal for outdoor relaxation. If you're interested in seeing how the Freestone floor plan can meet your needs, please contact us today to schedule your private tour and experience the charm of this home for yourself.

22. 2026-04-09
    price $291,990 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Discover this exceptional new construction home at 22516 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 well-appointed bathrooms featuring contemporary fixtures • 1,732 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space • Open-concept living space perfect for daily living and entertaining • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a family-friendly atmosphere • Excellent proximity to parks for outdoor recreation and community activities • Located in a sought-after area known for its peaceful residential setting The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family needs, guests, or a home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that maximizes every square foot for modern living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 70279116

23. 2026-04-07
    price $291,990 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    READY NOW! The Freestone floor plan is a stunning single-story home. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, it offers a spacious, open-concept layout, perfect for entertaining guests. The family room boasts high ceilings, while the chef-worthy kitchen features an oversized island and a spacious pantry, creating an ideal space for family and friends to gather. The en-suite bathroom, with a walk-in shower, enclosed toilet area, and a massive walk-in closet, is perfect for getting ready. The owner's suite has a bay window perfect for a cozy reading nook or sitting area. The covered patio on the rear exterior is ideal for outdoor relaxation. If you're interested in seeing how the Freestone floor plan can meet your needs, please contact us today to schedule your private tour and experience the charm of this home for yourself.

24. 2026-03-03
    price $288,990 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Discover this exceptional new construction home at 22516 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 well-appointed bathrooms featuring contemporary fixtures • 1,732 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space • Open-concept living space perfect for daily living and entertaining • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a family-friendly atmosphere • Excellent proximity to parks for outdoor recreation and community activities • Located in a sought-after area known for its peaceful residential setting The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family needs, guests, or a home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that maximizes every square foot for modern living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 70279116

25. 2026-03-02
    price $288,990 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    READY NOW! The Freestone floor plan is a stunning single-story home. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, it offers a spacious, open-concept layout, perfect for entertaining guests. The family room boasts high ceilings, while the chef-worthy kitchen features an oversized island and a spacious pantry, creating an ideal space for family and friends to gather. The en-suite bathroom, with a walk-in shower, enclosed toilet area, and a massive walk-in closet, is perfect for getting ready. The owner's suite has a bay window perfect for a cozy reading nook or sitting area. The covered patio on the rear exterior is ideal for outdoor relaxation. If you're interested in seeing how the Freestone floor plan can meet your needs, please contact us today to schedule your private tour and experience the charm of this home for yourself.

26. 2026-02-06
    listed $289,990 Active 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Discover this exceptional new construction home at 22516 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 well-appointed bathrooms featuring contemporary fixtures • 1,732 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space • Open-concept living space perfect for daily living and entertaining • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a family-friendly atmosphere • Excellent proximity to parks for outdoor recreation and community activities • Located in a sought-after area known for its peaceful residential setting The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family needs, guests, or a home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this home delivers a comfortable and move-in ready environment that maximizes every square foot for modern living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 70279116

27. 2026-02-05
    listed $289,990 Active 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    READY NOW! The Freestone floor plan is a stunning single-story home. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, it offers a spacious, open-concept layout, perfect for entertaining guests. The family room boasts high ceilings, while the chef-worthy kitchen features an oversized island and a spacious pantry, creating an ideal space for family and friends to gather. The en-suite bathroom, with a walk-in shower, enclosed toilet area, and a massive walk-in closet, is perfect for getting ready. The owner's suite has a bay window perfect for a cozy reading nook or sitting area. The covered patio on the rear exterior is ideal for outdoor relaxation. If you're interested in seeing how the Freestone floor plan can meet your needs, please contact us today to schedule your private tour and experience the charm of this home for yourself.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,935/yr (+$328/mo · 358.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,230
• After-tax cash flow: $931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $285,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $291,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $288,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Listed $289,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.