403 Poston St · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1972 10,454 sqft lot $128/sqft · 9% below area Est $242k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable neighborhood close to shopping and amenities. This spacious home features beautiful mountain views and an additional Arizona room that can be used as a den, office, or potential third bedroom. Plenty of space and future potential. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• Arizona room
• Mountain views
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ARIZONA ROOM
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,321
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -9.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 Cancun Corte	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (-0%)	2mo	$335,000	$196	87
1156 Adobe Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (-4%)	0mo	$290,000	$177	82
387 Rio Rico Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,725 (+1%)	1mo	$315,000	$183	69
402 Sykes Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-8%)	17mo	$279,000	$176	61
1160 Hodges Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-7%)	17mo	$234,500	$148	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $132,111
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $379,156
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,457/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,729

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
392 Falcon Ct Rio Rico, AZ	4.0	2.0	2037	$2,000	$0.98	1d	1	0.47mi
401 Via Capri Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	2177	$1,950	$0.90	20d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $219,900 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable neighborhood close to shopping and amenities. This spacious home features beautiful mountain views and an additional Arizona room that can be used as a den, office, or potential third bedroom. Plenty of space and future potential. Don't miss out!

16. 2026-02-26
    status Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable neighborhood close to shopping and amenities. This spacious home features beautiful mountain views and an additional Arizona room that can be used as a den, office, or potential third bedroom. Plenty of space and future potential. Don't miss out!

17. 2026-02-10
    historical Active Contingent 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable neighborhood close to shopping and amenities. This spacious home features beautiful mountain views and an additional Arizona room that can be used as a den, office, or potential third bedroom. Plenty of space and future potential. Don't miss out!

18. 2026-01-31
    listed $230,000 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable neighborhood close to shopping and amenities. This spacious home features beautiful mountain views and an additional Arizona room that can be used as a den, office, or potential third bedroom. Plenty of space and future potential. Don't miss out!

19. 2025-10-02
    historical
20. 2025-07-05
    listed $239,900 Active
21. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed
22. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus $185,000
23. 2022-09-20
    historical Active Contingent
24. 2022-08-15
    listed $210,000 Active
25. 1997-04-01
    soldstatus $85,000
26. 1992-01-30
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,457 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,457 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,457
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$1,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$325
• After-tax cash flow: $2,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+205.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $219,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-10 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-31 Listed $230,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-05 Listed $239,900 MLSSAZ
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-25 Sold (MLS) $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-09-20 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-15 Listed $210,000 MLSSAZ
• 1997-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,457 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.