2210 N Fm 2378 · Lubbock, TX 79363

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2001 6.21 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 6.2 acres featuring a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with central AC and heat. The home offers a functional floor plan and has been completely remodeled and new roof, providing comfortable everyday living and room to make it your own. Enjoy the privacy and flexibility of country-style living while still being conveniently located just 15–20 minutes from Texas Tech University, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for those seeking space, affordability, and easy access to town.

Key facts

• Central ac
• Mobile home
• Completely remodeled

Tags

• 6.2 ACRES
• MOBILE HOME
• CENTRAL AC
• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• NEW ROOF
• COUNTRY-STYLE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-315/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $161,044
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $475,309
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,334/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,283

Max offer price $294,362

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $58	+0% $-26	+5% $-111	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-115	+0% $-26	+5% $63	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $50	base $-26	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11707 County Road 6400 Unit B Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,250	$1.41	14d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    listed $299,000 Active 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Spacious 6.2 acres featuring a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with central AC and heat. The home offers a functional floor plan and has been completely remodeled and new roof, providing comfortable everyday living and room to make it your own. Enjoy the privacy and flexibility of country-style living while still being conveniently located just 15–20 minutes from Texas Tech University, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for those seeking space, affordability, and easy access to town.

17. 2003-02-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,334 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,138/yr (+$345/mo · 310.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,334
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,343
• After-tax cash flow: $1,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 283,030
• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2003-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,334 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.